Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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49

Ty Emberson

Edmonton Oilers Defense

76 games at 25 on a third pair, and a defenceman acquired for a first-round pick's worth of cap space.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2023-24SJS301910-46000313.218:33
2024-25EDM7621113-518001623.215:07
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—10632023-924001933.216:05

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

2 goals and 11 assists in 76 games for 13 points, minus-5, on 15:07 a night.

49.0 per cent at five-on-five, the 45th percentile — the second-worst share among Edmonton defencemen, which on this club still puts him at the league median. 62 shots with 84 per cent from beyond 40 feet and 2 per cent from inside 20.

The Finesse Game

Very little and none required. The first pass is simple and safe and it does not go wrong often, and 13 points in 76 games is a defensive defenceman’s total.

There is no offensive projection at all.

The Physical Game

6 feet and 193, and honest. He defends his net front adequately, takes contact, and blocks shots.

18 penalty minutes over 76 games is disciplined and it is the most encouraging line in his record.

The Intangibles

A third-round pick, three organisations, and a first full NHL season at 24 on a Cup finalist.

The projection is a third-pair right shot who plays 70 games. On a club with this much money committed at the top of the roster, a cheap defenceman who does not lose games is exactly what is needed.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    83.5% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 91st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • clears-the-creasepresent and ordinary· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He defends his net front adequately”

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “He defends his net front adequately, takes contact, and blocks shots.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “a cheap defenceman who does not lose games is exactly what is needed”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 933 minutes

Expected goals
49%
45th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.1%
44th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 34 for, 45 against. Expected: 35.3 and 36.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
25th
Numbers
45th

The numbers rank him 20 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 68 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 76 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
81st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.63 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.20 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.0 mph
15th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 89.7

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 933 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
EDM took 54.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.0% — 5.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 933 minutes at five-on-five — 50th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brett Kulak50.1%47.4%55.8%
Mattias Janmark39.6%53.0%51.3%
Adam Henrique44.4%51.0%47.5%

50.1% together, 47.4% for him apart and 55.8% for Kulak apart. Kulak was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

91 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 57 feet. 2% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 84% from beyond forty.