Edmonton Oilers

What the Quant Says

294 goals, 4th in the league, on the best rate of chance creation at even strength in hockey — 3.295 expected goals per 60. No other club is close to the first of those numbers being the smaller achievement.

At five-on-five Edmonton took 56.9 per cent of the expected goals, first in the league, and 55.2 per cent of the shot attempts, third. That is not a good club with a great player on it. That is a club that spent eighty-two games with the puck in the other end.

And it scored 193 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 214.0 — a finishing shortfall of 21.0 goals, 30th in the league. Two clubs converted worse: Chicago, who were 31st at creating chances, and Carolina, who were second. The two best chance-creating clubs in the league both finished in the bottom three at scoring on them.

The four highest individual five-on-five chance shares in this edition are all Oilers. Connor McDavid at 63.1 per cent, Zach Hyman at 63.0, Evan Bouchard at 62.5, Mattias Ekholm at 62.1. The fifth name on that list is Aleksander Barkov at 60.8, and he is not close. Four men on one roster held the puck better than anybody else in the league did.

Connor McDavid scored 32 goals and had 132 points in 76 games — a hundred assists, and third in the edition behind Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon. Leon Draisaitl had 41 goals and 106 points. Zach Hyman scored 54, third in this edition behind Auston Matthews and Sam Reinhart, and did it from a median shot distance of eleven feet with 70 per cent of his attempts inside twenty. He is a net-front player attached to the best passer alive and he took full advantage of it.

The power play produced 8.637 expected goals per 60 over 4:31 a night, second in the league. That is not where the season went wrong either.

So the shortfall has to be somewhere, and it is not on the first line. McDavid's ice went 90-57 against an expectation of 85.40-49.95 and Hyman's 90-50 against 84.99-49.82 — both of them finished above what the chances were worth. Draisaitl's went 76-49 against 76.92-54.10, which is level.

It is everybody else. Connor Brown played 71 games, scored 4 goals, and his ice went 16-23 against an expectation of 30.59-32.34 — fifteen goals of scoring that never arrived, in his first full season back from a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Derek Ryan's went 11-18 against 22.56-20.97. Mattias Janmark's 23-23 against 28.76-25.93. Three checking forwards, three lines that were winning the play and losing the scoreboard.

What the Scout Says

Two of the five best forwards alive, a net-front winger who scored 54, and then nothing.

Connor McDavid takes 51 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet at a median of 20 feet and had a hundred assists. The puck goes where he is looking and it arrives on time. Leon Draisaitl shoots from 24 feet at a median with 37 per cent inside 20 and converted 18.9 per cent of his attempts.

Zach Hyman takes 70 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet at a median of 11 feet. He goes to the paint, stays there, and gets hit for it. Fifty-four goals is what that costs and what it is worth.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is 6-1 and 192 and plays the half-wall. Adam Henrique is 34 and converted 17.1 per cent of 140 shots. Corey Perry took 65 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 12 and is still a net-front player at 39.

Below that it is checking. Connor Brown scored 4 goals in 71 games. Mattias Janmark scored 4 in 71. Derek Ryan scored 5 in 70. Thirteen goals from three regular forwards on the club that created more chances than anybody in hockey.

What the Quant Says

237 goals against, 10th in the league, and 2.498 expected goals against per 60 at even strength, 13th. Middling suppression on a club that never had the puck in its own end long enough for it to matter much.

Evan Bouchard played 81 games at 23:00 a night, scored 18 goals and added 64 assists for 82 points, and finished plus-34. The 64 assists are third among defencemen in this edition behind Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. His ice went 94-58 against an expectation of 93.57-56.22, which is a first pair getting exactly what its play deserved and rather a lot of it. He is 24, he shoots from the point at a median of 51 feet with 76 per cent of his attempts beyond forty, and the entire question about him is whether the defending ever catches up to the rest.

Mattias Ekholm played 79 games at 21:03 and finished plus-44, third in this edition behind Gustav Forsling and Dylan DeMelo. His ice went 88-49 against an expectation of 87.25-53.28. He is 34, 6-5 and 225, in his thirteenth season, and the pairing with Bouchard is the reason both of their numbers look the way they do.

Darnell Nurse played 81 games at 21:54 and finished plus-3. His ice went 60-60 against an expectation of 73.49-63.20 — thirteen goals of scoring that did not arrive on the ice of a defenceman paid to be a number one. He is 29, 6-4 and 215, with 549 career penalty minutes, and the gap between the contract and the second pair is the most-discussed thing about this club for a reason.

Brett Kulak played all 82 at 15:23 and his ice went 45-44 against an expectation of 52.48-43.64. Troy Stecher played 54 games at 18:07 and his went 34-27 against 34.52-35.10. Both are useful, neither is a solution, and the club spent the summer not signing one.

The men whose ice finished furthest below expectation are largely gone. Vincent Desharnais went 29-30 against 44.35-38.07 and is a Canuck. Warren Foegele went 47-45 against 59.54-41.75 and is a King. Ryan McLeod went 39-30 against 49.35-37.78 and is a Sabre. Cody Ceci went 59-55 against 66.16-61.04 and is a Shark. Whether that is addition by subtraction or the same shortfall wearing new jerseys is the question the season answers.

Ty Emberson arrived from San Jose at 24 after 30 games and a 41.4 per cent chance share, the seventh percentile. Josh Brown is 6-5 and 220 with 296 career penalty minutes in 290 games. Travis Dermott played 50 games in Arizona at a 45.0 per cent share. That is the depth, and it is thin.

What the Scout Says

A first pair that can do everything and a second pair that is a contract.

Evan Bouchard shoots from a median of 51 feet with 76 per cent of his attempts beyond 40. The shot is the reason he had 64 assists and the reason he has 130 career assists in 265 games. He is 6-3 and 192 and does not punish anybody, and the defending is a work in progress that the pairing hides.

Mattias Ekholm is 6-5 and 225 and defends with his reach. He closes gaps early, takes the man off the wall, and has 176 career plus-minus across thirteen seasons. He is the reason Bouchard's half of the pairing works.

Darnell Nurse is 6-4 and 215 and skates as well as any big defenceman in the league, with 549 career penalty minutes and 79 last season — the most on the club. He retaliates. Brett Kulak is 6-1 and 192 and is from Edmonton, and 82 games at 15:23 is exactly the role he should have.

Troy Stecher is 5-10 and 184 and blocks shots. Josh Brown is 6-5 and 220 with 296 penalty minutes in 290 games and took 75 in 51 last season. Ty Emberson is 24 and played 30 games in San Jose. That is the depth behind two pairs, and it is the thinnest part of the roster.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 9.1 goals better than the chances it faced, 10th in the league. This is the part of the Edmonton story that is told wrong every year. The crease was not the problem in 2023-24.

Stuart Skinner went 36-16-5 with a .9053 and a 2.62 in 59 games, facing 1,553 shots, with 2 shutouts. He is 25, from Edmonton, a third-round pick in 2017, and his career line across 123 games is a .9093 and a 2.69 — so last season was a little below his own standard rather than a collapse. He is 6-4 and 215 and plays a blocking game, deep in the crease, relying on size rather than reaction. It works against volume and it works less well when the first shot moves him.

Calvin Pickard went 12-7-1 with a .9088 and a 2.45 in 23 games, facing 581, with a shutout. He is 32, a second-round pick in 2010, in his ninth season across six organisations, and his career .9042 over 139 games is what a backup looks like. Last season was the best save percentage of his career over a meaningful sample and there is no obvious reason to expect it twice.

Between them they were the tenth-best crease in the league behind middling chance suppression. A tandem does not have to be a strength to stop being an excuse, and this one stopped.

What the Scout Says

A local 25-year-old who has never been anything but adequate, and a 32-year-old journeyman who was better.

Stuart Skinner is 6-4 and 215 and plays a blocking game, deep in his crease, covering the net with size rather than movement. It is an economical way to play and it depends on seeing the first shot. He is from Edmonton, was a third-round pick by Edmonton, and has played his whole career for Edmonton, which is a pleasant story and no help at all in a playoff series.

His rebound control is the weakness. The puck comes off him into the slot more often than it should, and behind a club that concedes as little as this one does, most of the dangerous chances he faces are the second ones.

Calvin Pickard is 6-1 and 206, a second-round pick in 2010, and is in his ninth season across six organisations. A .9088 in 23 games is the best work of his career and his career number is .9042 across 139. He is a good backup having a good year, which is the most that can be said and is not nothing.

Neither of them is why this club has not won, and neither of them is going to be why it does.

What the Quant Says

2nd in the league at 8.637 expected goals per 60, over 4:31 a night — the third-least power-play time in the league. One club created more with the man advantage and thirty got more chances to.

Leon Draisaitl scored 21 power-play goals and has 146 in his career, which is the single most reliable source of goals this organisation has. He works from the left circle and the goal line and he does not need the puck to arrive cleanly.

Zach Hyman scored 15 from the net front. Evan Bouchard scored 8 from the point and Connor McDavid 7, which is a low number for him and a function of playing distributor on a unit with two finishers ahead of him. Adam Henrique scored 5, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 4, Corey Perry 3, Mattias Ekholm 2 and Darnell Nurse 1.

Jeff Skinner arrives with 8 power-play goals last season and 75 in his career. He is the fourth legitimate option this unit has had in years and the least necessary addition on the roster.

A unit that is second in the league does not need fixing. It needs the other fifty-five minutes to catch up to it.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-one power-play goals from one man, and second in the league.

Leon Draisaitl has 146 career power-play goals and shoots from the left circle without needing the puck to settle. Connor McDavid has 78 career power-play goals and 647 career assists and plays the unit as a distributor rather than a shooter.

Zach Hyman scored 15 from the net front and has 41 in his career. He screens, tips, and takes the cross-check. Evan Bouchard scored 8 from the point at a median of 51 feet.

Adam Henrique has 63 career power-play goals and Corey Perry 120. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has 70. Jeff Skinner arrives with 75. Six men on this roster have scored sixty or more with the advantage, which is not a thing most clubs can say.

Second in the league, and the only unit in hockey that makes the case for adding nothing.

What the Quant Says

6th in the league at 6.357 expected goals against per 60, over 4:57 a night, which is 17th for shorthanded time. Fifth-best kill, middling exposure to it, and nothing here that cost the season.

Adam Henrique scored 2 shorthanded goals and has 16 in his career, which is the most of any forward on this roster by a distance. Derek Ryan scored 2 and has 6 in 570 games. Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse and Mattias Ekholm scored 1 each.

Mattias Janmark has 10 career shorthanded goals in 557 games and is the specialist the structure is built around. Connor Brown has 8 in 519. Two men whose even-strength scoring vanished last season and whose shorthanded work did not.

Sixth in the league, and one of the four things this club does better than almost anybody.

What the Scout Says

Sixth in the league, killed by forwards who cannot score at even strength.

Mattias Janmark has 10 career shorthanded goals in 557 games and is the man sent over the boards first. Connor Brown has 8 in 519 and Derek Ryan 6 in 570 — two more specialists whose value last season was almost entirely on the kill.

Adam Henrique has 16 career shorthanded goals, the most on the roster, and scored 2 last season. Connor McDavid has 8 and kills when the game demands it rather than as a matter of routine.

Mattias Ekholm defends with his reach and Darnell Nurse with his skating, which is the pairing a sixth-ranked kill is built on. Brett Kulak blocks shots at 6-1 and 192.

Derek Ryan took 8 penalty minutes in 70 games and Connor Brown 10 in 71. The men doing the killing are the men least likely to put the club back on it.