Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

14

Mattias Ekholm

Edmonton Oilers Defense

A 59.1 per cent chance share at 34 — the 99th percentile — and 20 goals of finishing that never came.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12NSH2000-1000010.012:25
2012-13NSH1000-10000016:05
2013-14NSH62189-810000581.716:49
2014-15NSH8071118+1252101868.119:01
2015-16NSH8282735+14441131147.020:15
2016-17NSH8232023+4340011202.523:28
2017-18NSH81102434+25465111357.423:35
2018-19NSH8083644+27472031465.523:22
2019-20NSH6882533-1320121545.223:22
2020-21NSH4861723+19140021105.522:52
2021-22NSH7662531+14440011454.123:29
2022-23NSH/EDM7892332+28280001356.721:29
2023-24EDM79113445+44472131776.221:03
2024-25EDM6592433+11303011436.322:12
2025-26 so far
Career88486274360+1874281441815245.621:45

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

9 goals and 24 assists in 65 games for 33 points, plus-11, on 22:12 a night.

59.1 per cent at five-on-five, the 99th percentile, over 1,198 minutes. His on-ice goals were 39-49 against an expected 63.9-44.3 — 25 goals of finishing missing at one end and 5 of goaltending at the other. He missed 17 games and the club’s defensive shape visibly changed without him.

The Finesse Game

The first pass is the skill and it is among the best in the league. He beats a forecheck by himself, he chooses the right option under pressure with almost no error rate, and 24 assists in 65 games from a defensive defenceman is a real total.

143 shots and 9 goals with 12 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet — he activates more than his reputation suggests. The skating is good rather than fast and the game is built on being early.

The Physical Game

6-5 and 225, and he uses it properly. He clears his crease, defends the rush with reach, and is genuinely hard to get around at the blue line.

30 penalty minutes over 65 games is excellent discipline. At 34 the body is the concern — 65 games last season and he has cleared 75 once in four years.

The Intangibles

Fourteen seasons, two organisations, and a decade of being the best defenceman almost nobody outside his own market discusses.

At 34 with a 99th-percentile chance share, the value is unarguable and the runway is short. Edmonton’s blue line is Bouchard’s offence and Ekholm’s structure, and there is no succession plan for the second.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,198 minutes

Expected goals
59.1%
99th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
59.6%
99th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 39 for, 49 against. Expected: 63.9 and 44.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
93rd
Numbers
99th

The two rank him within 6 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 82 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1198 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
EDM took 54.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 59.1% — 4.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,198 minutes at five-on-five — 84th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Evan Bouchard59.0%59.5%57.2%
Connor McDavid59.8%58.0%59.9%
Zach Hyman60.1%58.1%60.5%

59.0% together, 59.5% for him apart and 57.2% for Bouchard apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

199 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 9 of them goals. His median goal came from 26 feet. 12% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 71% from beyond forty.