Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

93

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Edmonton Oilers Center

49 points in a third-line role, and a minus-16 goal differential on a 53.5 per cent chance share.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12EDM62183452-21630213413.417:36
2012-13EDM4042024+38200785.118:52
2013-14EDM80193756-122660417810.720:24
2014-15EDM76243256-122520218912.720:38
2015-16EDM55122234-91840110811.119:04
2016-17EDM82182543-10295042009.017:42
2017-18EDM62242448+102042215115.918:05
2018-19EDM82284169-132681320813.520:06
2019-20EDM65223961+13370417212.820:28
2020-21EDM52161935-42290213511.820:46
2021-22EDM63113950+3161311547.119:19
2022-23EDM823767104+1235151320118.419:48
2023-24EDM80184967+10364031839.819:37
2024-25EDM78202949+42472516412.218:58
2025-26 so far
Career959271477748-1933477936225512.019:25

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

20 goals and 29 assists in 78 games for 49 points, plus-4, on 18:58 a night with 2 shorthanded goals.

53.5 per cent at five-on-five, the 82nd percentile. His on-ice goals were 35-51 against an expected 45-39 — 16 goals of finishing and goaltending running the wrong way, which is the fourth such line in this chapter.

The Finesse Game

A genuinely versatile forward who has been asked to be four different players in a fourteen-year career and has been competent at all of them. The passing is the best of it, the release from the top of the circle is quick, and 48 per cent of his shots come from inside 20 feet.

164 shots and 20 goals at 12.2 per cent is a fair rate. What he does not do is drive a line by himself, which after fourteen seasons is a settled fact rather than a criticism.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 192, and light. He is honest on the forecheck and does not win pucks by force, and he takes the hardest defensive-zone draws on the club without complaint.

24 penalty minutes over 78 games. The durability has been excellent — five consecutive seasons above 75 games.

The Intangibles

The 1st overall pick in 2011, fourteen seasons in one organisation, and a career spent moving down the depth chart as better players arrived and never once making it a story.

At 32 the projection is 45 points and the same reliability. The contract runs long and the value is in the versatility rather than the production.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,036 minutes

Expected goals
53.5%
83rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.9%
88th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 35 for, 51 against. Expected: 45.0 and 39.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
80th
Numbers
83rd

The two rank him within 3 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 78 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1036 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
EDM took 54.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.5% — 0.8 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,036 minutes at five-on-five — 66th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Zach Hyman56.9%49.8%63.0%
Evan Bouchard56.7%50.4%59.3%
Connor McDavid58.3%48.6%60.9%

56.9% together, 49.8% for him apart and 63.0% for Hyman apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Hyman and did not follow him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

229 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 20 of them goals. His median goal came from 22 feet. 48% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.