Edmonton Oilers

Pacific Division, Western Conference · 21 reports in the 2023-24 edition.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2022-23 · 82 games · 245 for, 242 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 52.3% 6th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 53.5% 6th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 9.23 1st of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 7.79 26th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: +2.9 14th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: -4.3 16th of 32

Edmonton Oilers finished close to the chances underneath them at both ends. The record is roughly what the play deserved.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 28.2; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 4.3%; of skater points
From under 26: 10.1%; of skater points
Homegrown: 66.2%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 75.1%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

Three hundred and twenty-five goals, the most in the league, with a finishing rating of plus-2.9 and goaltending of minus-4.3 — the offence was not borrowed from anything.

Who this names 7 of 21 on the roster · 32% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg, Cody Ceci, Vincent Desharnais, Adam Erne, Warren Foegele, Sam Gagner, Dylan Holloway, Zach Hyman, Mattias Janmark, Evander Kane, Brett Kulak, Ryan McLeod, Darnell Nurse.

What the Quant Says

50-23-9, 109 points, 6th in the league and second in the Pacific.

325 goals for — the most in the league. 260 against, 17th. First in the league on the power play by rate, 6th in shot-attempt share, 5th at creating chances at even strength, 13th at suppressing them and 21st on the penalty kill.

At five-on-five: 191 goals scored against 188.1 expected, and 168 conceded against 163.7. The finishing was 14th at plus-2.9 and the goaltending 16th at minus-4.3. Edmonton scored more goals than anybody in hockey without a single percentage running in its favour. That is the most important sentence on this page and it is the opposite of how Boston built 65 wins.

Connor McDavid had 64 goals, 89 assists and 153 points — the most of each in this book. Leon Draisaitl scored 32 power-play goals, eleven more than anybody else in the league. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had 104 points in a twelfth season. Zach Hyman's median shot came from 12 feet, the closest of any forward in this book.

Edmonton beat Los Angeles in six and lost the second round to Vegas in six.

Mattias Ekholm arrived at the deadline and stayed. Tyson Barrie, Klim Kostin, Jesse Puljujarvi and Devin Shore do not return.

The offence is the best in the league and it does not depend on luck. The goaltending is sixteenth, the penalty kill twenty-fourth, and everything Edmonton has failed to do in eight seasons has happened at that end of the ice.

What the Scout Says

The best player alive, the best power play in hockey, and a crease that finished sixteenth.

Connor McDavid had 153 points and covers 3.78 miles a game at 24.2 mph with 6.5 bursts a night. Leon Draisaitl scored 32 power-play goals. Stuart Skinner posted a .9134 and Jack Campbell an .8880.

Two of the three best forwards in the world are on this roster and the club has not reached a Cup final with them. Everything that separates Edmonton from Vegas and Boston is at the defensive end, and the summer did not address it.

Who this names 7 of 12 forwards · 68% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Adam Erne, Warren Foegele, Sam Gagner, Dylan Holloway, Mattias Janmark.

What the Quant Says

325 goals — the most in the league, by 20 over Boston.

Edmonton created 2.987 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 6th, and took 52.3 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 6th, and 53.5 per cent of the expected goals, 6th.

At five-on-five it scored 191 goals against an expectation of 188.1 — a surplus of 2.9, 14th in the league. Edmonton led the league in scoring on the fourteenth-best finishing rate and the sixteenth-best goaltending. There was no percentage help in it at all, which is the strongest evidence available that this offence is real.

Connor McDavid had 64 goals and 153 points in all 82 games on 352 shots — the most goals, the most assists and the most points in this book. Leon Draisaitl had 52 and 128 with 32 power-play goals, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 37 and 104 in a twelfth season and Zach Hyman 36 and 83.

Evan Bouchard had 40 points from the blue line at 23 and Darnell Nurse 43 in all 82 games. Evander Kane scored 16 goals in 41 games.

What the Scout Says

A hundred and fifty-three points, and a winger whose median shot comes from twelve feet.

Connor McDavid is 6-1 and 194 and covers 3.78 miles a game — the most of any forward in this book — at 24.2 mph with 6.5 bursts above twenty miles an hour a night. The 99 in skating and the 99 in playmaking are the highest grades on any card in this book. He takes 52 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet and 6 per cent from beyond 40 — nineteen long-range shots on goal all season, from the man who had 153 points.

Leon Draisaitl is 6-2 and 209 and scored 52 goals, 51 of them from inside 40 feet on 222 shots. No player Germany has produced has scored at anything like this rate. He has played 638 games alongside McDavid and there is no version of this book that can separate them.

Zach Hyman is 6-1 and 206 and was 123rd overall in 2010. His median shot came from 12 feet, with 67 per cent of his attempts inside 20 — the closest chart of any forward in this book. Playing with McDavid is half the explanation; no linemate creates 43 deflections.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was first overall in 2011 and had 104 points at 30 off the 5th-percentile shot velocity. Evander Kane is 6-2 and 218 with 1,101 career penalty minutes and scored 16 in 41 games. Ryan McLeod registers 4.16 bursts a game, eighth in the league, on a fourth line.

Who this names 7 of 7 defencemen · 100% of their five-on-five minutes details

What the Quant Says

Edmonton allowed 2.603 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 13th in the league, and conceded 260 goals, 17th.

At five-on-five it conceded 168 goals against an expectation of 163.7, and the club's goaltending came in 4.3 goals worse than the chances it faced, 16th in the league. The middle of the league at both, on the club that scored the most goals in hockey.

Darnell Nurse played all 82 games at 23:30 and finished plus-26, taking the hardest matchup. Mattias Ekholm arrived at the deadline and held a 55.9 per cent chance share, the 91st percentile — the best figure on the blue line.

Evan Bouchard held a 57.6 per cent chance share at 23 with 40 points. Cody Ceci played 80 games at 20:08 and scored one goal.

Edmonton's blue line ran the same experiment five ways. Darnell Nurse took 114 shots on goal from beyond 40 feet and scored 3. Evan Bouchard took 114 and scored 3, on 54 slap shots. Brett Kulak took 84 and scored 1, on 39 slap shots. Cody Ceci took 50 and scored none. Mattias Ekholm took 47 slap shots and scored 3. Five men, four hundred long-range shots on goal, ten goals.

Vincent Desharnais is 6-7 and played his first NHL game at 26. Tyson Barrie has gone to Nashville.

What the Scout Says

Five defencemen who shot from the point four hundred times, and ten goals to show for it.

Darnell Nurse is 6-4 and 215 and played all 82 games at 23:30 on the hardest matchup, finishing plus-26, with 470 career penalty minutes. He took 114 shots on goal from beyond 40 feet and scored 3.

Evan Bouchard is 6-3 and was tenth overall in 2018, and runs the best power play in hockey from the point. He took 114 shots from beyond 40 feet on 54 slap shots and scored 3. Brett Kulak took 84 on 39 slap shots and scored 1. Cody Ceci took 50 and scored none. Mattias Ekholm took 47 slap shots and scored 3.

Five men, the same experiment, the same answer. This blue line is the clearest single demonstration in the edition that a hard shot from the point is a rebound-generating device rather than a scoring one.

Mattias Ekholm is 6-5 and 225 and was 102nd overall in 2009, eleven and a half seasons in Nashville and one of the more underrated defencemen of his generation. The possession numbers say he was the best defenceman on the club the moment he arrived; the 7th percentile in top speed says the clock is running.

Vincent Desharnais is 6-7 and 225, drafted 183rd, and played his first NHL game at 26. Philip Broberg was eighth overall and has 69 games in two seasons.

Who this names 2 of 2 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 4.3 goals worse than the chances it faced, 16th in the league. Exactly average, on the club that scored the most goals in hockey.

Stuart Skinner went 29-14-5 with a .9134 and a 2.75 in 50 games at 24, facing 1,536 shots. His career line across 64 games is a .9124, from a third-round pick out of Edmonton.

Jack Campbell went 21-9-4 with an .8880 and a 3.41 in 36 games, facing 1,027. That was the first year of a five-year contract, and his career line across 171 games is a .9102 — a hundred and twenty points of save percentage above what he managed here.

Twenty-one wins came from the .888 and twenty-nine from the .913, which is what happens when a club scores 325 goals. Edmonton has the fifth-best rate of chance creation in the league and the sixteenth-best goaltending, and only one of those two numbers can be improved by signing somebody.

What the Scout Says

A third-round pick out of Edmonton at .9134, and a five-year contract at .8880.

Stuart Skinner is 6-4 and 215 and went 29-14-5 with a .9134 in 50 games at 24. He is large, calm and positionally sound — the 70 in positioning is the highest goaltending figure in this chapter — and the career .9124 across 64 games matches the season almost exactly. He is a local product who took the job from a man being paid several times as much.

Jack Campbell is 6-3 and 200 and posted an .8880 in the first year of a five-year contract. His career line across 171 games is a .9102, which is a hundred and twenty points of save percentage above what he managed here. He is athletic and reactive and was visibly overwhelmed by traffic behind a club that concedes chances at the thirteenth-best rate in the league.

Edmonton scored 325 goals and got the sixteenth-best goaltending in hockey. Everything the club cannot do is downstream of that, and the answer on the roster is a 24-year-old with 64 NHL games.

Who this names 8 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

1st in the league at 8.934 expected goals per 60 — the best rate in hockey — over 4:52 a night, the twelfth-fewest power-play minutes of any club.

Leon Draisaitl scored 32 power-play goals — the most in the league, by eleven. Connor McDavid scored 21, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 15, Zach Hyman 15, Evan Bouchard 2 and Sam Gagner 1 elsewhere.

Fifty-three power-play goals from two men. No other club in this edition has a pair within twenty of it.

Leon Draisaitl has 125 career power-play goals in 638 games, the most on the roster and by rate the largest figure in this book. Connor McDavid has 71 in 569, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 66 in 801, Sam Gagner 54 in 1,015, Evander Kane 50 in 853 and Zach Hyman 26 in 500.

The best power play in hockey by rate, on the twelfth-fewest minutes, run through two of the three best forwards alive. There is nothing to say about it except that it is the single biggest advantage any club in this book holds.

What the Scout Says

Fifty-three power-play goals from two men, on the best unit in hockey.

Leon Draisaitl scored 32 power-play goals, eleven more than anybody else in the league, and has 125 in 638 career games. He shoots from the right circle and the entire structure exists to give him that puck.

Connor McDavid scored 21 and has 71 in 569 games. He carries the entry, sets from below the goal line and is the man the penalty kill cannot leave.

Zach Hyman scored 15 and stands in the paint — 67 per cent of his shots come from inside 20 feet, and on this unit that is where the rebounds land. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored 15 and has 66 in 801 games working the half-wall.

Evan Bouchard takes the point with a 96.9 mph shot at the 87th percentile and 32 assists at 23.

First in the league by rate on the twelfth-fewest power-play minutes. This is the single largest advantage any club in this book holds, and it is entirely a function of two players.

Who this names 9 men details

What the Quant Says

24th in the league at 7.006 expected goals against per 60, over 5:35 a night — the sixth-most shorthanded time of any club. A great deal of ice and a poor rate on it.

Connor McDavid scored 4 shorthanded goals, Mattias Janmark 3, Darnell Nurse 2, Derek Ryan 2, Ryan McLeod 2, Warren Foegele 1, Evander Kane 1 and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1. Sixteen shorthanded goals — a very large number from a unit that finished 24th.

Evander Kane has 17 career shorthanded goals in 853 games, the most on the roster, and Mattias Janmark 10 in 486. Zach Hyman has 8 in 500, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 7 in 801, Connor McDavid 7 in 569 and Derek Ryan 4 in 500.

G · Edmonton Oilers

A .9134 in fifty games, from a third-round pick out of Edmonton.

How they were used

2022-23 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.