Edmonton Oilers

Pacific Division, Western Conference · 27 reports in the 2026-27 edition.

The club

2025-26 · 82 games · 245 for, 242 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 50.3% 12th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 51.6% 9th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 9.23 1st of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 7.79 26th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: -9.5 23rd of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: -15.6 26th of 32

Edmonton Oilers scored 9.5 fewer goals than their chances were worth and got 15.6 fewer saves than the chances they faced warranted — 25 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain. Both halves regress.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 29.1; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 13.5%; of skater points
From under 26: 16.4%; of skater points
Homegrown: 51.5%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 75.1%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

The best power play in the league, the tenth-best chance share, and 3 goaltenders who between them stopped .8822, .874 and .8721 last season.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted

The book

3rd of 32

The numbers

11th of 32

The book places it 8 spots higher than the numbers do. Every report underneath was written with these numbers on screen and the book departs from them anyway, which makes the gap a judgment rather than an oversight.

Both bars rank this club among the 32 in the edition. The report bar is the mean of its players' grades, weighted by the five-on-five minutes each of them played; the numbers bar is their expected-goal share on the same weighting. It counts 23 of the 27 reports on this roster — the rest have no five-on-five record long enough to weigh — and it reads the roster as it stands rather than the club's own last season.

Who the words reach 22 of 27 · 83% of the five-on-five minutes who is left out (5)

The bars above counted every man on the roster with enough ice time to weigh. The paragraphs name whoever they name, and no rule says who that should be — so this says who it was, over the write-up as a whole. Each section below reaches far fewer than this, which is the figure that matters: the section is where the selection happens, and the count sits under each one. The share is of the five-on-five minutes played by the 23 men on this roster who have a measured record.

Not named: Colton Dach, Alec Regula, Josh Samanski, Ryan Shea, Spencer Stastney.

Who this names 7 of 27 on the roster · 31% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Frederik Andersen, Evan Bouchard, Colton Dach, Jason Dickinson, Mattias Ekholm, Ty Emberson, Isaac Howard, Mattias Janmark, Tristan Jarry, Mathieu Joseph, Kasperi Kapanen, Devon Levi, Shakir Mukhamadullin, Connor Murphy, Alec Regula, Josh Samanski, Matt Savoie, Ryan Shea, Spencer Stastney, Jake Walman.

What the Quant Says

A contender with one hole in it. 5th in even-strength expected goals per 60, 10th in chance share, and the best power play in the league by 6-tenths of a goal per 60 — on the fourth-least man-advantage time in hockey.

Then the 2 columns that decide the season: 9.5 goals below expectation in finishing, 23rd, and 15.6 goals worse than the chances faced in goal, 26th. The skaters are owed goals at both ends. The 3 goaltenders now on the roster stopped .8822, .874 and .8721 last season, and nothing else here needs fixing.

What the Scout Says

2 of the best hockey players alive, a supporting cast built entirely around what they need, and a goaltending room with no certainty in it. Connor McDavid reaches top speed in 2 strides and, more dangerously, refuses to treat speed as the finish — he slows a play down at the moment everyone expects it to accelerate. Leon Draisaitl beats you the opposite way, holding the puck half a second past the point the defence has committed and delivering the pass that was available the whole time.

Around them the roster is honest labour. Zach Hyman wins the puck back and hands it over; Vasily Podkolzin arrives on the defenceman before the retrieval is finished; Trent Frederic and Max Jones exist to be difficult. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the connector who turns a broken entry into a possession and has taken every role the club has asked of him in 15 years. The concerns are all at the edges: an ageing heavy-minutes group, a blue line whose best defensive player is the oldest man on it, and 3 goaltenders who each come with a different question attached.

Who this names 9 of 15 forwards · 73% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Colton Dach, Jason Dickinson, Trent Frederic, Mattias Janmark, Max Jones, Josh Samanski.

What the Quant Says

Still the most dangerous attack in hockey by name, and the numbers no longer flatter it. Connor McDavid put up 138 points on 306 shots from a median of 21 feet, with 48 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 — and while he was on the ice at 5-on-5 the expected goals ran 81.6 to 60.9 in his favour and the actual goals went 75 for and 68 against. Seven goals of scoring that did not arrive and seven more against than the chances called for, and none of it is his.

Leon Draisaitl added 97 points in 65 games. Zach Hyman takes 74 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet, from a median of 9 — the closest-working shooter in this edition — and scored 31 in 58 games. Matt Savoie is 22 with 37 points. As a club Edmonton was 5th in even-strength expected goals per 60 and still finished 9.5 goals below expectation, 23rd. This is not an offence that needs fixing; it is one that was owed goals.

What the Scout Says

It begins and ends with 2 men who solve defensive structures in incompatible ways. Connor McDavid forces defencemen to turn early and has beaten them the moment they do; nobody in the league changes direction at that speed with the puck still in a shooting position. He is also far better at taking a hit to make a play than most stars are willing to be. Leon Draisaitl's one-timer from his off wing does not need a good pass — he will take it in his feet, off his back skate, behind him — and in tight he scores an unreasonable number of goals simply by outwaiting the goaltender. Put them together and no structure has solved it; split them and there are 2 lines that must be defended honestly.

The support is deliberately shaped. Zach Hyman is the best net-front player here and one of the best anywhere at arriving at a rebound half a second before the defenceman thinks it possible — unhurried hands in a scramble, and a forecheck that turns over more pucks than anyone else on the roster. Vasily Podkolzin plays straight up the wall and gets there first, which beside skilled centres is worth more than soft hands. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins settles the bad pass in his feet and keeps the shift alive. The thinness shows further down: Kasperi Kapanen can beat a defenceman wide from a standstill and the play too often dies after the entry; Mathieu Joseph is a burner whose shift produces nothing when the speed does not. The genuine hope is Matt Savoie, who finds the soft ice between coverage layers and arrives half a second early, and Isaac Howard, whose hands and change of pace in small areas are real — both of whom currently lose the wall battles that a professional game is decided by.

Who this names 6 of 9 defencemen · 72% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Alec Regula, Ryan Shea, Spencer Stastney.

What the Quant Says

14th in even-strength expected goals against, and a top pair that outscored its chances and still conceded above them. Evan Bouchard put up 95 points at the 97th percentile in chance share and had the expected goals run 83.2 to 60.1 in his favour while the goals went 87-69 his way. Mattias Ekholm, at 36, posted the 97th percentile across 1,462 minutes with the same shape — expected 81.3 to 58.3, actual 84-67 — and was plus-32.

Those 2 are among the most badly served players in the edition, and the reason is entirely behind them. Below the pair it thins: Ty Emberson at the 31st percentile, Jake Walman at the 22nd. Darnell Nurse is in San Jose and Brett Kulak in Colorado. Connor Murphy arrives at 33 with 13 years of shutdown minutes on bad teams and a 22nd percentile season behind him.

What the Scout Says

A pair that works because the 2 halves are opposites. Evan Bouchard makes the long first pass — the one that hits a forward in stride at the far blue line — under pressure, off his backhand, from his own goal line, which is why Edmonton's rush so often starts before the forwards have turned around. He defends with stick and reach rather than body, and he holds pucks a beat too long looking for the play that breaks a game open. Mattias Ekholm is why that is affordable: his gap control kills a rush without a single spectacular play being made, and watching his side of the ice for a period looks like nothing is happening there. That is the whole point of him.

Jake Walman is the other genuine skater — long strides, real top speed, willing to carry a puck end to end two or three times a night — with an edge that occasionally spills into the sort of penalty that makes a bench sigh, and a coverage he will lose in his own end. Connor Murphy is the crease-clearer and the man who takes away the middle on a kill; Ty Emberson plays a simple game quickly, which is the difference between a third pair a coach trusts and one he has to hide. Shakir Mukhamadullin uses his length rather than his body and is out-muscled at the net front. The common thread underneath the top pair is that almost nobody here punishes anybody, and the foot speed that makes Ekholm work is the first thing that goes.

Who this names 3 of 3 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

The problem, and it has not been solved. Edmonton's goaltending came in 15.6 goals worse than the chances faced, 26th in the league. Stuart Skinner is in Winnipeg, Calvin Pickard in Minnesota, Connor Ingram off the roster.

What replaces them is the concern. Tristan Jarry stopped .8822 across 33 games, Frederik Andersen .874 across 35, and Devon Levi .8721 across 9. 3 goaltenders, none of whom cleared .883 last season, in front of a club whose skaters are being outscored by 20 and 30 goals relative to the chances they generate. Everything else on this roster is a contender's; this is the line that decides whether it matters.

What the Scout Says

3 goaltenders, 3 different questions, no answers. Frederik Andersen is 6-4 and lets the size do the work — square early, no over-commitment, the top of the net taken away by simply standing in the right place — and he is unflappable to the point that it reads as indifference. Bad goals do not move him. What he is not is a scrambler: the push across on a second and third save was always average, and his availability has shaped the back half of his career.

Tristan Jarry is one of the best puck-handlers in the league and a genuine weapon at breaking a forecheck, and on a bad night will put one directly on an opposing stick. He has drifted deeper in his crease, which turns clean shots into scrambles, and the streaks have got longer and lower. Devon Levi reads releases early and has a legitimately excellent glove, plays deeper than a man his size can afford to, and when beaten is beaten cleanly. A club that has lost 2 springs at this position has assembled a room of men who might each be the answer and none of whom can be relied upon to be.

The roster

Evidence 21 Full 5 Light 1 No record

No measured season behind one man: Devon Levi. His page carries an older stat line and a judgment, and nothing from 2025-26.

Frederik Andersen

#30

G · Edmonton Oilers

One of the most efficient goaltenders of his generation, now 36, coming off the worst save percentage of his career.

Evan Bouchard

D · Edmonton Oilers

A 95-point defenseman with the hardest shot on the team and a turnover in him that will take a year off your life.

Colton Dach

C · Edmonton Oilers

A 6-4 winger with a decent set of hands who has spent 3 years being almost ready.

Jason Dickinson

#16

C · Edmonton Oilers

A defensive center who has made a long career out of the shifts nobody wants and the faceoffs nobody counts.

Leon Draisaitl

#29

C · Edmonton Oilers

One of the two or three most dangerous goal-scorers alive, and he does it at a pace that looks like he is barely trying.

Mattias Ekholm

#14

D · Edmonton Oilers

The defenseman who makes mistakes disappear — quietly, 20 minutes a night, against the other team's best.

Ty Emberson

D · Edmonton Oilers

A steady, unspectacular right-shot defenseman doing exactly what a third pair is supposed to do.

Trent Frederic

#10

C · Edmonton Oilers

A heavy, useful bottom-6 forward coming off a year in which almost nothing went in.

Isaac Howard

#53

LW · Edmonton Oilers

A Hobey Baker winner in his first professional season, small and skilled, with everything still ahead of him.

Zach Hyman

#18

LW · Edmonton Oilers

A fifth-round pick who made himself a 30-goal scorer by being willing to stand in the one place nobody else wants to stand.

Mattias Janmark

#13

C · Edmonton Oilers

Fast, honest and almost entirely without offense — a coach's fourth-liner who has outlasted most of his draft class.

Tristan Jarry

#35

G · Edmonton Oilers

A 2-time All-Star whose game has come apart badly enough that he was sent to the minors 2 years ago.

Max Jones

#46

LW · Edmonton Oilers

A big, straight-ahead energy winger who plays 8 minutes and makes all of them uncomfortable.

Mathieu Joseph

RW · Edmonton Oilers

Speed, penalty-killing minutes, and a scoring touch that has been trending the wrong way for 3 years.

Kasperi Kapanen

#42

RW · Edmonton Oilers

Blazing speed, a decent shot, and 11 years of people wondering why it has not added up to more.

Devon Levi

#27

G · Edmonton Oilers

A small, brilliant, deeply unconventional goaltender whose college numbers have never once translated.

Connor McDavid

#97

C · Edmonton Oilers

The fastest player in the league is also its most patient one; the danger is not the speed itself but what he does at the end of it.

Shakir Mukhamadullin

#85

D · Edmonton Oilers

A long, mobile 6-4 Russian defenseman who has just started to look like the first-round pick he was.

Connor Murphy

D · Edmonton Oilers

13 years of shutdown minutes on bad teams, arriving here with a body that has taken a great deal of punishment.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

#93

C · Edmonton Oilers

A first-overall pick who became something more useful than a star: the player who makes whichever line he is put on work.

Vasily Podkolzin

#92

RW · Edmonton Oilers

A tenth-overall pick who looked like a bust in Vancouver and has quietly turned into exactly the winger a skill team needs.

Alec Regula

#75

D · Edmonton Oilers

A 6-4 right-shot defenseman whose career has been mostly injuries and whose last look did not go well.

Josh Samanski

#81

C · Edmonton Oilers

An undrafted German center who went from the DEL to a two-way NHL role in a single year.

Matt Savoie

#22

C · Edmonton Oilers

Undersized, entirely unbothered by it, and the most promising young forward the organization has produced in a decade.

Ryan Shea

D · Edmonton Oilers

A fourth-round pick who spent 6 years in the minors and then, at 28, played 80 games and was plus-30.

Spencer Stastney

#24

D · Edmonton Oilers

A small, mobile seventh defenseman who has been on the edge of a full-time job for 4 years.

Jake Walman

#96

D · Edmonton Oilers

A skating, shooting, slightly reckless defenseman who was a spare part on 3 teams before anyone noticed how good he had gotten.

How they were used

2025-26 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.