Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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62

Artturi Lehkonen

Colorado Avalanche Left Wing

Twenty-one goals in 64 games and twenty minutes a night — a checking winger who became a first-line one.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17MTL73181028-1821315811.413:52
2017-18MTL6612921-11203131647.316:29
2018-19MTL82112031+10320041766.315:33
2019-20MTL70131427+2240111409.315:26
2020-21MTL477613-26020789.013:25
2021-22MTL/COL74191938+12222215512.315:06
2022-23COL64213051+82881315014.020:27
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—476101108209+71401581610219.915:47

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

21 goals and 30 assists in 64 games, plus-8, 20:27 a night — four minutes more than any season of his career.

51 points is a career high by thirteen. So is the ice time, so is the goal total, and so is the shooting percentage at 14.0.

54.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 81st percentile, with his ice at 48-39 against an expectation of 45.16-38.34. Both ends land almost exactly where the chances said they would — a first-line winger’s results with no percentage help at all, which is the most trustworthy version of a career year.

The Finesse Game

150 shots at a median of 23 feet, 44 per cent from inside twenty, 17 per cent from beyond forty. He shoots from the places goals come from.

Inside forty feet: 120 shots on goal, nineteen goals, 15.83 per cent. Beyond forty: 26 shots, two goals.

21 tip-ins and five deflections in the shot-type record — a fifth of everything he put on net was a redirection. That is a specialist’s number and it is the reason he plays with MacKinnon and Rantanen rather than behind them.

The shot itself is 88.1 mph, the 30th percentile. Nothing about the goals comes from the shot.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 179, and 3.03 miles a game at the 81st percentile — a lot of ground for a winger, and the reason he was trusted with twenty minutes.

22.8 mph at the 79th percentile with 1.5 bursts a game at the 74th. He is quick enough to forecheck first and durable enough to do it all night.

28 penalty minutes in 64 games. He plays a hard game inside the rules, which is the rarest of the physical profiles in this book.

The Intangibles

55th overall in 2013, six seasons in Montreal as a defensive winger who could not score, and then a trade to Colorado in 2022 and a Cup ten weeks later.

He scored the goal that put Montreal in the 2021 Final and the goal that won Colorado the 2022 Western Conference. Twice, in consecutive years, for opposite teams. That is the kind of record this book has no metric for and should say out loud anyway.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    14:53 a game at five-on-five, 92nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    60% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “21 tip-ins and five deflections in the shot-type record — a fifth of everything he put on net was a redirection.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “He is quick enough to forecheck first and durable enough to do it all night.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “six seasons in Montreal as a defensive winger who could not score”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 952 minutes

Expected goals
54.1%
81st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
54.8%
89th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 48 for, 39 against. Expected: 45.2 and 38.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
70th
Numbers
81st

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 64 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
83rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.53 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.03 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.1 mph
55th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 952 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
COL took 52.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.1% — 1.6 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 952 minutes at five-on-five — 53rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nathan MacKinnon53.4%55.5%56.5%
Devon Toews53.9%54.3%58.3%
Mikko Rantanen51.6%56.8%54.0%

53.4% together, 55.5% for him apart and 56.5% for MacKinnon apart. MacKinnon was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

208 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 21 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 44% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.