Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

23

Kurtis MacDermid

Colorado Avalanche Left Wing

Listed as a winger and shoots like a defenceman — 71 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18LAK34134-457000195.311:36
2018-19LAK11011-11100050.09:21
2019-20LAK45358-947000515.913:43
2020-21LAK28224-14360001612.513:21
2021-22COL58235+189000464.37:24
2022-23COL44156-155001205.08:20
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—22091928-282950011575.710:23

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 5 assists in 44 games, minus-1, 55 penalty minutes, 8:20 a night — the lowest ice time on the club.

45.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 351 minutes, the 24th percentile. His ice went 11-12 against an expectation of 12.80-15.33, which on 351 minutes is a number to note and not to lean on.

Six seasons, 220 games, 28 points, and 55 penalty minutes in 44 games is well down from the 89 he took the year before.

The Finesse Game

20 shots at a median of 55 feet, 71 per cent of them from beyond forty and 11 per cent from inside twenty — which is a defenceman’s shot chart, and he is listed at left wing.

That is not a quirk of the data. Colorado have used him at both positions, and the distribution is the clearest evidence in the book of where he actually stands when the puck is in the offensive zone.

Beyond forty: 13 shots, one goal. Inside forty: 7 shots, none. There is no offensive game here and there has never been one.

The Physical Game

6-5 and 233, the largest man on the roster. And he is a curiosity in the tracking feed: he played 44 games, which is above the threshold, and he is the only skater in the league with 40 or more games who carries no skating measurements at all. There is no top speed, no burst count and no distance for him. The feed does not say why.

55 penalty minutes in 44 games at eight minutes a night is a very high rate. He fights, he clears the front of the net, and the club dresses him for specific opponents.

On a Colorado roster built on speed he is the one concession to a different kind of hockey, and the eight minutes a night is what that concession costs.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, a son of Paul MacDermid, and six years of a career built entirely on being the hardest man available.

He has a Cup ring from 2022. The role he plays is the one the analytics era keeps declaring dead, and clubs with a Cup window keep carrying one anyway.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted, a son of Paul MacDermid, and six years of a career built entirely on being the hardest man available.”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He fights, he clears the front of the net, and the club dresses him for specific opponents.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “55 penalty minutes in 44 games at eight minutes a night is a very high rate.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 351 minutes

Expected goals
45.5%
24th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.5%
26th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 11 for, 12 against. Expected: 12.8 and 15.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
4th
Numbers
24th

The numbers rank him 20 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 51 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 44 games

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 351 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
COL took 52.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.5% — 7.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
351 minutes at five-on-five — 8th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Logan O'Connor45.8%45.3%49.7%
Alex Newhook50.0%43.5%51.5%
Brad Hunt39.4%47.8%52.5%

45.8% together, 45.3% for him apart and 49.7% for O'Connor apart. O'Connor was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

28 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 55 feet. 11% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 71% from beyond forty.