Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

11

Andrew Cogliano

Colorado Avalanche Center

Sixteen seasons, 1,219 games, and he has missed a meaningful stretch of exactly none of them.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2007-08EDM82182745+1201259818.413:40
2008-09EDM82182038-62240411615.514:24
2009-10EDM82101828-5311011397.214:11
2010-11EDM82112435-12640131298.517:15
2011-12ANA82131326-41520211511.314:42
2012-13ANA48131023+1460217916.515:22
2013-14ANA82212142+132803515713.415:24
2014-15ANA82151429+51403213411.214:36
2015-16ANA8292332+2280231316.914:26
2016-17ANA82161935+11260321789.015:08
2017-18ANA80122335+18410311756.915:12
2018-19ANA/DAL7861117+1221011065.712:36
2019-20DAL6831114+230000684.412:28
2020-21DAL545611-824010885.713:56
2021-22SJS/COL7441216-1820010755.312:40
2022-23COL7910919+6440008511.812:37
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—1219184261445+204359213018739.814:18

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

10 goals and 9 assists in 79 games, plus-6, 12:37 a night, at the age of 35.

46.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 27th percentile, with his ice at 30-24 against an expectation of 26.64-31.29. The chances were against him and the goals were not, which over 842 minutes is the sort of gap that does not repeat.

Sixteen seasons and 1,219 games. He has played all 82 in nine of them, and the only two years he fell below 68 games were the two seasons the league itself shortened.

The Finesse Game

85 shots at a median of 30 feet. Inside forty: 63 shots, ten goals. Beyond forty: 20 shots, none.

The shot measures 78.1 mph — the 1st percentile, among the six softest in the league. He scored ten goals anyway, at 35, in twelve minutes a night, which says the same thing Parise’s report says from the other end of the roster.

184 goals in sixteen years. He has never been a scorer and has never been asked to be.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 179. 22.2 mph at the 45th percentile but 2.0 bursts over twenty a game at the 85th — he reaches a modest top speed and reaches it constantly, which is the tracking signature of a penalty-killer.

Against that, 1.99 miles a game at the 15th percentile. Short shifts, all of them at pace.

44 penalty minutes in 79 games is the second-highest rate of his career and reads as a 35-year-old arriving a half-step late.

The Intangibles

25th overall in 2005, out of Michigan, and one of the great durability records in the sport.

He turns 37 in June and plays a fourth line for a contender. Colorado kept him because a club that lost Manson for 55 games and Makar for 22 needed somebody who was going to be there, and he was.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    33% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 8th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “he reaches a modest top speed and reaches it constantly, which is the tracking signature of a penalty-killer”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “Colorado kept him because a club that lost Manson for 55 games and Makar for 22 needed somebody who was going to be there, and he was.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 842 minutes

Expected goals
46%
27th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.9%
37th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 30 for, 24 against. Expected: 26.6 and 31.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
12th
Numbers
27th

The two rank him within 15 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 56 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 79 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
52nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.97 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.99 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
78.1 mph
14th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 842 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
COL took 52.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.0% — 6.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 842 minutes at five-on-five — 43rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Logan O'Connor48.5%35.3%50.5%
Erik Johnson43.0%47.8%50.3%
Samuel Girard43.8%47.1%54.0%

48.5% together, 35.3% for him apart and 50.5% for O'Connor apart. He was worse away from O'Connor, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than O'Connor did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

102 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 32% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.