Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

12

Ryan Johansen

Colorado Avalanche Center

Twelve goals in 55 games and minus-13, in the last year anyone will describe him as a first-line centre.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12CBJ6791221-224303999.112:44
2012-13CBJ405712-712002845.916:05
2013-14CBJ82333063+34370523713.917:39
2014-15CBJ82264571-64072020212.919:30
2015-16CBJ/NSH80144660+6614021857.617:34
2016-17NSH82144761+1604131549.118:50
2017-18NSH79153954+137810312911.618:33
2018-19NSH80145064+74201613610.319:33
2019-20NSH68142236-54531210113.917:03
2020-21NSH48715220223006710.416:57
2021-22NSH79263763-253110611822.016:34
2022-23NSH55121628-13325018614.015:46
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—842189366555-551248533159811.817:25

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

12 goals and 16 assists in 55 games for Nashville, minus-13, 15:46 a night — the fewest minutes he has played since his second season.

49.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 44th percentile, with his ice at 22-28 against an expectation of 28.14-29.12: six goals short at the offensive end.

Twelve seasons, 842 games, 555 points. He has 366 career assists, and 28 points in 55 games is his lowest scoring rate since the shortened 2020-21 season.

The Finesse Game

86 shots at a median of 19 feet, 53 per cent from inside twenty and 9 per cent from beyond forty — the most concentrated close-range distribution of any Colorado forward.

Inside forty: 76 shots, twelve goals, 15.79 per cent. Beyond forty: 7 shots, none.

Eight deflections in the shot-type record from a 6-3 centre. He gets to the net and he finishes at a good rate when he is there; the problem is that 86 shots in 55 games is not enough volume for a man playing sixteen minutes.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 218, and the skating has been the criticism for a decade: 21.9 mph at the 30th percentile with 0.7 bursts over twenty a game at the 33rd.

2.42 miles a game at the 38th percentile. He is large, he is not quick, and at 31 the gap between the size and the pace is widening.

32 penalty minutes in 55 games. He is not a physical player at that size, which is the longest-standing complaint about him and is visible in the numbers rather than merely asserted.

The Intangibles

Fourth overall in 2010, two 60-point seasons in Columbus, seven and a half years in Nashville, and a contract that outlasted the production.

Colorado took him on to be a second-line centre behind MacKinnon. He is 31, the possession numbers are ordinary and the skating is below average. If it works it is because MacKinnon and Rantanen make the minutes easy, which is not a projection so much as a hope.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He gets to the net and he finishes at a good rate when he is there”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 640 minutes

Expected goals
49.1%
45th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.6%
67th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 22 for, 28 against. Expected: 28.1 and 29.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
7th
Numbers
45th

The numbers rank him 38 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 54 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 55 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
39th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.65 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.42 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.3 mph
57th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with NSH · 640 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
NSH took 47.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.1% — 2.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 640 minutes at five-on-five — 25th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nino Niederreiter51.2%46.6%53.9%
Roman Josi48.5%49.7%50.0%
Mattias Ekholm58.5%42.6%55.2%

51.2% together, 46.6% for him apart and 53.9% for Niederreiter apart. He was worse away from Niederreiter, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Niederreiter did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

126 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 54% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.