This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Evan Rodrigues
Florida Panthers Center
Undrafted out of Boston University, and the 93rd percentile in chance share on the club that won the Cup the year before.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | BUF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12.5 | 11:45 |
| 2016-17 | BUF | 30 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 7.8 | 12:56 |
| 2017-18 | BUF | 48 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -10 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 7.7 | 13:56 |
| 2018-19 | BUF | 74 | 9 | 20 | 29 | -7 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 168 | 5.4 | 15:49 |
| 2019-20 | BUF/PIT | 45 | 6 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 75 | 8.0 | 11:17 |
| 2020-21 | PIT | 35 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 65 | 10.8 | 14:06 |
| 2021-22 | PIT | 82 | 19 | 24 | 43 | +3 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 243 | 7.8 | 15:50 |
| 2022-23 | COL | 69 | 16 | 23 | 39 | +7 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 184 | 8.7 | 17:51 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 385 | 69 | 99 | 168 | -23 | 107 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 885 | 7.8 | 15:01 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
16 goals and 23 assists in 69 games — 39 points — with Colorado. Plus-7, 17:51 a night, 184 shots at 8.7 per cent, 30 penalty minutes.
57.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 93rd percentile, with his ice at 51-42 against an expectation of 51.09-38.30 — exactly the chances at the offensive end and four worse at the defensive one.
Forty-three points in Pittsburgh the year before, thirty-nine in Colorado in this one. Two useful seasons in a row at twenty-nine and thirty, after six that were not.
Eight seasons, 385 games, 168 points.
The Finesse Game
184 shots at a median of 26 feet, 37 per cent from inside twenty and 24 per cent from beyond forty.
Beyond forty: 43 shots on goal, 2 goals. Inside forty: 137 shots, 14 goals, 10.22 per cent.
8.7 per cent on 184 shots is a modest conversion rate, and it is the second year running at roughly that figure. The volume is a genuine skill; the finishing is ordinary.
95.2 mph at the 79th percentile, on fifteen slap shots. He shoots harder than most forwards and it has never turned into goals, which is the usual fate of that measurement.
The Physical Game
5-11 and 182, and thirty penalty minutes.
Top speed 22.1 mph, the 40th percentile; bursts 0.9 a game, the 50th; 2.66 miles a game, the 58th. Average in every direction the feed measures.
He is a small forward who plays a clean, positional game and does not win pucks by force. On the third line of a club that generates the second-most expected goals per sixty in the league, he does not need to.
The Intangibles
Undrafted, out of Boston University, signed by Buffalo at twenty-two, and 385 games later he is on his fourth organisation.
54.9 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 72nd percentile.
He is the kind of player who looks better on good clubs and gets signed by them for it, and the honest reading of the last two seasons is that the linemates explain a good deal of the chance share. What is his own is that he takes 180 shots a year from a third-line assignment.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there
57.2% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 50.7% for his club in the minutes he sat: +6.5, 95th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it
- workhorse· carries the load at even strength
15:12 a game at five-on-five, 94th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it
“**Undrafted**, out of Boston University, signed by Buffalo at twenty-two, and 385 games later he is on his fourth organisation.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,049 minutes
- Expected goals
- 57.2%
- 94th pct
- Shot attempts
- 56%
- 92nd pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 51 for, 42 against. Expected: 51.1 and 38.3.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 28 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 69 games
- Top speed
- 22.1 mph
- 48th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 0.91 a game
- Distance
- 2.66 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 95.2 mph
- 93rd pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.9
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2022-23 with COL · 1049 minutes at five-on-five
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- COL took 52.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 57.2% — 4.7 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- Third line, 1,049 minutes at five-on-five — 64th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Toews | 61.5% | 53.8% | 54.7% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 57.8% | 56.6% | 51.0% |
| Samuel Girard | 59.4% | 55.6% | 48.9% |
61.5% together, 53.8% for him apart and 54.7% for Toews apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
234 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 23 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 24% from beyond forty.