Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

11

Miles Wood

Colorado Avalanche Left Wing

The 97th percentile in top speed and the 11th in distance covered — the widest gap in the league between how fast a man is and how far he skates.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16NJD10000000020.013:06
2016-17NJD608917-21862001057.612:51
2017-18NJD76191332-68430217011.212:28
2018-19NJD63101424-10911011596.313:42
2019-20NJD68111223-19570011417.813:14
2020-21NJD5517825-62930212713.414:59
2021-22NJD3000-2400020.014:46
2022-23NJD76131427+1762021677.812:06
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—4027870148-6342711088738.913:08

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

13 goals and 14 assists in 76 games for New Jersey, plus-1, 76 penalty minutes, 12:06 a night, 167 shots at 7.8 per cent.

50.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 55th percentile, with his ice at 32-27 against an expectation of 37.29-36.89. Five short at the offensive end, ten better at the defensive one.

Eight seasons, 402 games, 148 points, and a season that was almost entirely lost to hip surgery in 2021-22 — three games.

The Finesse Game

167 shots at a median of 30 feet, 37 per cent from inside twenty and 32 per cent from beyond forty. That is an oddly barbelled distribution for a winger and the yield is what it looks like.

Beyond forty: 48 shots on goal, one goal, 2.08 per cent — half the league rate for a forward, on a lot of attempts for a man playing twelve minutes. Inside forty: 115 shots, twelve goals.

167 shots at 7.8 per cent is a shot-volume player without a finishing touch, and the 48 wasted attempts from range are the clearest place to look for the missing goals.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 209, and the tracking line is one of the strangest in this edition. Top speed 23.5 mph, the 97th percentile. Bursts over twenty, 3.2 a game, the 97th. Distance covered, 1.91 miles a game — the 11th.

He is among the fastest men in the league and among the least travelled. The available reading is that he plays short shifts at maximum effort and nothing in between, which fits a straight-line forechecker on a fourth line; the feed cannot separate that from a player who stops skating when the puck leaves, and this book will not pretend it can.

76 penalty minutes in 76 games. He plays on the edge of it and always has.

The Intangibles

100th overall in 2013, out of Boston College, and a New Jersey career of eight years that never quite settled into a role.

Colorado signed him for six years at 27 to add speed to the bottom six. The speed is real and measured. The rest of the contract is a bet on a player whose possession numbers have never been better than average.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    31.5% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 95th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “which fits a straight-line forechecker on a fourth line”

  • edgesa strength· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone

    “He is among the fastest men in the league and among the least travelled.”

  • takes-libertiesa strength· crosses the line and knows where it is

    “76 penalty minutes in 76 games. He plays on the edge of it and always has.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 839 minutes

Expected goals
50.3%
55th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.2%
63rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 32 for, 27 against. Expected: 37.3 and 36.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
34th
Numbers
55th

The numbers rank him 21 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 76 games

Top speed
23.5 mph
97th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
3.22 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.91 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.4 mph
51st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with NJD · 839 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
NJD took 56.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.3% — 5.8 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 839 minutes at five-on-five — 43rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Michael McLeod48.1%54.4%57.5%
Damon Severson55.5%46.4%61.1%
Nathan Bastian50.7%50.0%64.6%

48.1% together, 54.4% for him apart and 57.5% for McLeod apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

219 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 32% from beyond forty.