Columbus Blue Jackets

What the Quant Says

237 goals, 25th in the league, over a chance-creation rate that was 18th at 2.546 expected goals per 60 at even strength. The attack is below average and it is not the problem on this page.

At five-on-five the club scored 175 goals against an expectation of 165.7 — a finishing surplus of 9.3 goals, 8th in the league. It finished better than it created, which on a 66-point club is worth saying out loud.

Zach Werenski had 57 points with 46 assists from the blue line in 70 games. Kirill Marchenko scored 23 at 23. Boone Jenner scored 22 in 58 games. Dmitri Voronkov scored 18 as a rookie at 6-5 and 234. Egor Chinakhov scored 16 in 53 games and Adam Fantilli 12 in 49 at nineteen.

Johnny Gaudreau led the club in scoring.

Sean Monahan was added after 26 goals and 59 points in 83 games at a 15.2 per cent conversion, and he is the closest thing to a first-line centre this roster has had in three years.

What the Scout Says

Two men who live in the paint, a defenceman who took 202 shots, and not much in between.

Dmitri Voronkov takes 64 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 13 — the most net-front profile on the club — and converted 12.68 per cent as a rookie at 6-5. Justin Danforth takes 56 per cent from inside 20 at a median of 16 at 5-8 and 193 pounds, which takes a willingness most players that size do not have.

James van Riemsdyk was added and takes 65 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 12, with 311 career goals and 93 of them on the power play. He is 35 and he still stands in front.

Kirill Marchenko shoots from a median of 28 feet with 35 per cent inside 20 and converted 11.92 per cent for 23 goals. Sean Monahan shoots from a median of 18 with 53 per cent inside 20 and converted 15.2 per cent.

Zach Werenski took 202 attempts from the blue line and threw 46 assists, and he is the largest single source of offence on this roster by a distance.

What the Quant Says

300 goals against, 31st in the league, and 31st in even-strength expected goals against at 2.999 per 60. Only San Jose was worse at either. This is the club.

At five-on-five the club conceded 196 goals against an expectation of 195.6. That is the sentence that removes every excuse: the chances were the second-worst in hockey and the goals matched them exactly.

Zach Werenski played 24:27 a night — the most on the roster — and took 47.5 per cent of the chances. Ivan Provorov played all 82 at 22:10 and his ice went 60-63 against an expectation of 56.67-68.16.

Erik Gudbranson took 44.0 per cent of the chances, the 14th percentile, at 19:40 a night, and his ice went 52-61. Cole Sillinger took 43.0 per cent, the 10th percentile, and his ice went 43-45 — two goals underwater in 1,017 minutes, which is six goals better than the chances he was on for deserved and the one flattering figure on his page.

David Jiricek is 20, was sixth overall in 2022, and his ice conceded five fewer goals than expected in 609 minutes while scoring six fewer at the other end.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-four and a half minutes a night from a 27-year-old, and the second-worst chance suppression in hockey behind him.

Zach Werenski carries the puck out of his own zone rather than passing it out, and 24:27 a night with 46 assists is a genuine first-pairing offensive defenceman. He defends with skating rather than force and he does not clear his crease. 22 penalty minutes in 70 games and 115 in 486 for his career is one of the lowest rates on any blue line here.

Ivan Provorov played all 82 games at 22:10, and almost all of his 614 career games have been heavy minutes on clubs that concede. He blocks shots and defends positionally, and 27 assists is the offence.

Erik Gudbranson is 6-5 and 222 and clears the front of his own net by force, and he took the 14th percentile of chances doing it. 839 penalty minutes in 789 games — he will fight and he takes liberties.

Damon Severson carries the puck and has a career minus-130. David Jiricek is 20 and 6-4 and defends with reach that is not yet strength. Jack Johnson is 37 with 1,187 games and was added to a blue line that was 31st.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 0.4 goals worse than the chances faced, 16th in the league. Exactly neutral, in front of the second-worst chance suppression in hockey.

That is the honest and unhelpful finding. A club conceding 300 goals with average goaltending has nothing to blame and nothing to fix in the crease.

Elvis Merzlikins went 13-17-8 with an .8973, a 3.45 average and 1 shutout in 41 games, facing 1,266 shots. He has a career .9041 across 191 games and has not been above .9000 in three seasons.

Daniil Tarasov went 8-11-3 with a .9083 in 24 games at 25 and is 6-5. Jet Greaves went 3-6-0 with a .9083 in 9 games, is undrafted, and carries a career .9122 across 10 games.

Three goaltenders, no starter, and a defence that would make one hard to identify even if there were.

What the Scout Says

Three goaltenders, an .8973, and no answer.

Elvis Merzlikins is 6-3 and 190 and plays aggressively, meeting the shooter well out of the crease. It is a style that requires the defence in front to funnel play to the outside, and this defence was 31st at doing that. The rebound control is the weakness — a career .9041 across 191 games with three straight seasons below .9000 says the second chance goes back to the slot.

The athleticism is genuine and the lateral recovery is quick. He is 30 and the numbers have moved one way for three years.

Daniil Tarasov is 6-5 and 203 and plays deep and large, letting the frame take the top of the net. The lateral recovery is the cost of the style, and a .9083 in 24 games at 25 behind this defence is a better season than it reads.

Jet Greaves is undrafted, 6-0, and carries a career .9122 across 10 games. He plays aggressively because at that size there is no alternative.

A club that concedes 300 goals with exactly neutral goaltending does not have a goaltending problem, and that is the least comfortable sentence in this chapter.

What the Quant Says

20th in the league at 6.552 expected goals per 60, over 4:49 a night — the 28th-most power-play time in hockey. Below average at it and not given much of it.

Sean Monahan scored 9 power-play goals before arriving here, Kirill Marchenko 9, Dmitri Voronkov 6, James van Riemsdyk 6 before arriving here, Boone Jenner 5 and Zach Werenski 2.

The construction is a net-front man and a quarterback and not much between them. Voronkov is 6-5 and 234 and takes 64 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 13 — he stands in the blue paint and cannot be moved. Werenski walks the line at 24:27 a night and took 202 shots.

James van Riemsdyk was added and takes 65 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 at a median of 12, with 93 career power-play goals. That is a real and specific addition for the phase.

What the Scout Says

A 6-5 screen, a 35-year-old with 93 career power-play goals, and a quarterback taking 202 shots.

Dmitri Voronkov establishes position in the blue paint at 6-5 and 234 and stays there, and 64 per cent of his attempts come from inside 20 feet. He scored 6 a man up as a rookie.

James van Riemsdyk arrives with 93 career power-play goals and takes 65 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 12. Two men who do nothing but stand in front is an unusual amount of it, and it is the club's clearest idea.

Zach Werenski walks the line and holds the puck until a killing box commits, and Sean Monahan arrives having scored 9 a man up. Kirill Marchenko scored 9 off the far post.

Twentieth in the league is below average, and the pieces added in the summer are aimed squarely at it.

What the Quant Says

29th in the league at 8.327 expected goals against per 60, over 4:38 a game — the fifth-fewest shorthanded time in hockey. Very bad at it, and mercifully not asked to do much of it.

The discipline is the one thing this club does well. Sean Monahan took 12 penalty minutes in 83 games, Egor Chinakhov 6 in 53, Kent Johnson 10 in 42, Ivan Provorov 20 in 82, James van Riemsdyk 20 in 71 and Zach Werenski 22 in 70. Six regulars under twenty-five minutes for a season.

Mathieu Olivier took 70 penalty minutes in 54 games and Erik Gudbranson 74 in 78, and between them they are most of the fouling on the roster.

Sean Monahan scored 2 shorthanded goals, and Boone Jenner and Mathieu Olivier 1 each. There is aggression, and there is not much structure — 29th at the fifth-lightest workload in hockey is a unit that would be a genuine crisis if it were used more.

What the Scout Says

The most disciplined club in this chapter, and the twenty-ninth-ranked kill.

Six regulars took under twenty-five penalty minutes for a season — Egor Chinakhov 6 in 53 games, Kent Johnson 10 in 42, Sean Monahan 12 in 83, Ivan Provorov 20 in 82, James van Riemsdyk 20 in 71 and Zach Werenski 22 in 70. It is why the club spent the fifth-fewest minutes shorthanded in hockey.

Sean Kuraly wins the draw that begins the shift, and Boone Jenner takes the hardest defensive assignment among the forwards and scored a shorthanded goal. Sean Monahan scored 2.

Ivan Provorov blocks shots and defends positionally and Erik Gudbranson clears the crease. Neither is quick enough to deny an entry, which is where a kill ranked 29th loses.

Mathieu Olivier's 70 penalty minutes in 54 games and Erik Gudbranson's 74 in 78 are the two totals that put the unit on the ice at all.