Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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10

Dmitri Voronkov

Columbus Blue Jackets Left Wing

Six foot five and 234 pounds, eighteen goals as a rookie, and sixty-four per cent of his shots from inside twenty feet.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2023-24CBJ75181634-65260214212.713:27
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—75181634-65260214212.713:27

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

18 goals and 16 assists in 75 games — 34 points at 13:27 a night, minus-6, with 6 power-play goals and 2 game-winners on 142 shots, converting at 12.68 per cent, and 52 penalty minutes. His first NHL season, at 23.

49.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 838 minutes, the 50th percentile — the best mark of any forward on this roster who was here. His ice went 39-35 against an expectation of 37.28-37.93.

The Finesse Game

142 attempts at a median of 13 feet, with 64 per cent from inside 20 and 10 per cent from beyond 40 — the most net-front shot profile on this club by a distance — converting at 12.68 per cent.

He does not shoot from anywhere except the paint, and eighteen goals in under fourteen minutes a night from that profile is a real return for a rookie.

16 assists. He does not create and the puck does not stay on his stick — the offence is standing in the right place and being impossible to move out of it.

The Physical Game

6-5 and 234, and he cannot be moved off the front of the net. He is the largest forward on this roster and he plays like it: he establishes position in the blue paint and stays, and a defenceman who wants him gone has to take a penalty.

52 penalty minutes in 75 games as a rookie. He wins pucks on the wall and he does not go looking for anybody after the whistle.

The Intangibles

A hundred and fourteenth overall in 2019 — a fourth-round pick — out of Angarsk, and an NHL rookie at 23 after four seasons in Russia.

Eighteen goals and six power-play goals from a fourth-round pick in a first season is the second-best piece of drafting on this roster, and on a club that has spent a decade collecting top-ten picks, the two forwards who work best were taken 49th and 114th.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    70.3% of his attempts in the slot, 97th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “**He does not shoot from anywhere except the paint**, and eighteen goals in under fourteen minutes a night from that profile is a real return for a rookie.”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “**6-5 and 234, and he cannot be moved off the front of the net.** He is the largest forward on this roster and he plays like it: he establishes position in the blue paint and stays, and a defenceman who wants him gone has to take a penalty.”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “He wins pucks on the wall and he does not go looking for anybody after the whistle.”

  • agitatorhe lacks it· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “He wins pucks on the wall and he does not go looking for anybody after the whistle.”

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “**He does not create and the puck does not stay on his stick** — the offence is standing in the right place and being impossible to move out of it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 838 minutes

Expected goals
49.6%
50th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.1%
48th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 39 for, 35 against. Expected: 37.3 and 37.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
43rd
Numbers
50th

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 68 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 75 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
34th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.61 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.04 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.0 mph
85th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 838 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
CBJ took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.6% — 3.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 838 minutes at five-on-five — 42nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Kirill Marchenko50.4%48.4%42.0%
Zach Werenski52.3%47.9%47.0%
Yegor Chinakhov51.3%48.7%46.6%

50.4% together, 48.4% for him apart and 42.0% for Marchenko apart. Marchenko was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Marchenko than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

195 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 64% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 10% from beyond forty.