Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

3

Jack Johnson

Columbus Blue Jackets Defense

One thousand one hundred and eighty-seven games, thirty-seven years old, and a plus-fifteen.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2006-07LAK5000-51800050.021:23
2007-08LAK743811-1976000813.721:42
2008-09LAK416511-18463005012.020:17
2009-10LAK8082836-15483001306.222:37
2010-11LAK8253742-21443001533.323:12
2011-12LAK/CBJ82122638-7395051766.823:46
2012-13CBJ4451419-512301965.225:58
2013-14CBJ8252833-7484001473.424:41
2014-15CBJ7983240-13443011415.724:10
2015-16CBJ606814-1625302867.024:11
2016-17CBJ8251823+23321011164.321:49
2017-18CBJ773811-622001883.419:33
2018-19PIT8211213-441100861.219:17
2019-20PIT673811-126010634.819:28
2020-21NYR13101-58000137.716:58
2021-22COL74189+542000571.816:45
2022-23CHI/COL83268-1528000922.219:09
2023-24COL8031316+1538000764.014:56
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—118777259336-1146372911116564.721:12

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 13 assists in 80 games for Colorado — 16 points at 14:56 a night, plus-15, on 76 shots at 3.95 per cent, and 38 penalty minutes. He was 37.

47.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,118 minutes, the 36th percentile. His ice went 53-39 against an expectation of 43.01-47.04 — thirteen goals scored above expectation, on a club that was second in the league in finishing.

The Finesse Game

76 attempts at a median of 54 feet, with 73 per cent from beyond 40 and 4 per cent from inside 20, converting at 3.95 per cent. Seventy-seven goals in 1,187 games.

13 assists. He does not carry the puck out and the first pass is short and defensive, and 259 career assists across eighteen seasons is the whole of the offensive record.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 225. He blocks shots and he will go to the front of his own net, and the defending is honest positional work from a man who no longer has the feet for anything else.

38 penalty minutes in 80 games and 637 in 1,187 for his career. He does not retaliate and he does not take liberties.

The Intangibles

Third overall in 2005 by Carolina, out of Michigan, and 1,187 games across eighteen seasons for six clubs, with a career minus-114 and a Stanley Cup with Colorado in 2022.

He is 37 and was signed here in the summer. A club that was 31st in the league at suppressing chances has added a 37-year-old third-pairing defenceman, and the plus-15 came from the ice in front of him rather than from anything he did.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    36% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 4th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “**He blocks shots and he will go to the front of his own net**, and the defending is honest positional work from a man who no longer has the feet for anything else.”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “**He blocks shots and he will go to the front of his own net**, and the defending is honest positional work from a man who no longer has the feet for anything else.”

  • transitionhe lacks it· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “**He does not carry the puck out and the first pass is short and defensive**, and 259 career assists across eighteen seasons is the whole of the offensive record.”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “He does not retaliate and he does not take liberties.”

  • takes-libertieshe lacks it· crosses the line and knows where it is

    “He does not retaliate and he does not take liberties.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,118 minutes

Expected goals
47.8%
37th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.8%
44th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 53 for, 39 against. Expected: 43.0 and 47.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
11th
Numbers
37th

The numbers rank him 26 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 58 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 80 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
48th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.24 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.10 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
98.0 mph
86th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with COL · 1118 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
COL took 52.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.8% — 4.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 1,118 minutes at five-on-five — 75th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Ross Colton50.8%46.2%52.8%
Miles Wood49.4%46.9%47.6%
Josh Manson53.5%45.9%52.3%

50.8% together, 46.2% for him apart and 52.8% for Colton apart. He was worse away from Colton, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Colton did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

107 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 35 feet. 4% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 73% from beyond forty.