Columbus Blue Jackets

Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference · 24 reports in the 2026-27 edition.

The club

2025-26 · 82 games · 216 for, 215 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 50.8% 11th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 51.6% 9th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 6.78 24th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 8.27 30th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: -4.6 21st of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: +5.3 13th of 32

Columbus Blue Jackets finished close to the chances underneath them at both ends. The record is roughly what the play deserved.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 27.8; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 9.3%; of skater points
From under 26: 37.1%; of skater points
Homegrown: 49.4%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 87.0%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

9th in chance share, 7th in creating them, and 165 minutes of power play fewer than the league leader — the most improved team nobody is looking at.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted

The book

24th of 32

The numbers

8th of 32

The numbers place it 16 spots higher than the book does. Every report underneath was written with these numbers on screen and the book departs from them anyway, which makes the gap a judgment rather than an oversight.

Both bars rank this club among the 32 in the edition. The report bar is the mean of its players' grades, weighted by the five-on-five minutes each of them played; the numbers bar is their expected-goal share on the same weighting. It counts 22 of the 24 reports on this roster — the rest have no five-on-five record long enough to weigh — and it reads the roster as it stands rather than the club's own last season.

Who the words reach 20 of 24 · 91% of the five-on-five minutes who is left out (4)

The bars above counted every man on the roster with enough ice time to weigh. The paragraphs name whoever they name, and no rule says who that should be — so this says who it was, over the write-up as a whole. Each section below reaches far fewer than this, which is the figure that matters: the section is where the selection happens, and the count sits under each one. The share is of the five-on-five minutes played by the 22 men on this roster who have a measured record.

Not named: Jake Christiansen, Danton Heinen, Colton White, Miles Wood.

Who this names 8 of 24 on the roster · 42% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Jake Christiansen, Dante Fabbro, Conor Garland, Jet Greaves, Erik Gudbranson, Danton Heinen, Kent Johnson, Ryan Lomberg, Isac Lundeström, Denton Mateychuk, Elvis Merzlikins, Ivan Provorov, Damon Severson, Cole Sillinger, Colton White, Miles Wood.

What the Quant Says

The most improved team nobody is looking at. Columbus was 7th in the league in even-strength expected goals per 60 and 9th in chance share, and scored 253 — because it finished 4.6 below expectation, 21st, and spent less time on the power play than any club in hockey.

The goaltending was a genuine positive at 5.3 goals better than the chances faced, 13th. What holds the record down is entirely special teams: 24th on the power play with the least man-advantage time in the league, and 30th on the penalty kill. With 87.0 per cent continuity, fourth, almost all of a top-10 process returns. Fix the units and this is a playoff team.

What the Scout Says

A young, fast, heavy-in-places club that has worked out something most rosters have not: where goals come from. Dmitri Voronkov shoots from closer to the net than anybody covered in this edition, and he is strong enough that clearing him is a 2-man job. Charlie Coyle has no speed left and has replaced it entirely with position, holding pucks in the corners until somebody is open. Sean Monahan is slow and knows exactly where to stand. Valeri Nichushkin wins wall battles and cannot be moved from in front of the net.

Around that sits genuine skill and genuine speed. Zach Werenski is in the best stretch of his career; Adam Fantilli is a 6-2 centre among the faster players in the league who does not lose the puck while doing it; Kirill Marchenko has become a real playmaker rather than a finisher who passes. And the fourth line is the modern version of the old job — Mathieu Olivier is fast enough to forecheck a defenceman into a turnover, which is the difference between a role and a liability. What is missing is a blue line that can defend its own paint.

Who this names 8 of 14 forwards · 65% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Danton Heinen, Ryan Lomberg, Isac Lundeström, Mathieu Olivier, Cole Sillinger, Miles Wood.

What the Quant Says

Better than the goal totals say. Columbus was 7th in the league in even-strength expected goals per 60 and 9th in chance share, and scored 253 — because it finished 4.6 goals below expectation and spent less time on the power play than any club in hockey.

Adam Fantilli put up 59 points at 21 with a 53.4 per cent share, and Kirill Marchenko has 102 goals in 292 games from a second-round pick. The shot profiles at the bottom of the lineup are the unusual part: Dmitri Voronkov takes his shots from a median of 12 feet, the shortest average distance of any player in this edition, Charlie Coyle from 16 at 34, Sean Monahan from 17. That is a team that has been taught where to stand. Kent Johnson, 5th overall in 2021, is the one who has not arrived — 22 points and a 48.4 per cent share at 170 pounds.

What the Scout Says

Skill up top and unusual honesty about where to shoot from. Kirill Marchenko has big hands on a big frame, handles the puck in traffic the way a smaller man does, and has the reach to take it off a defenceman who thinks it is covered. Adam Fantilli's skating is genuinely exceptional and his shot is heavy without being precise — the men scoring 30 on this roster shoot from much closer, and that is the whole of what he has left to learn. Kent Johnson does things with the puck in tight that almost nobody in this book can do, and he is removed from pucks routinely and does not get to the ice where those hands would matter.

The productive half of the roster is the unglamorous half. Dmitri Voronkov tips, screens and collects rebounds and has no perimeter game and no need for one — on the evidence of where he works, he is the single most playoff-shaped forward in this edition. Charlie Coyle and Sean Monahan both lost a step and started scoring more rather than less by moving closer. Valeri Nichushkin is a large man with unusually soft hands who matters more in a series than in a season. Conor Garland refuses to give a puck up and has lost ground on both the possession and the finishing; Cole Sillinger's passing developed and the shot, which was supposed to be the thing, did not.

Who this names 6 of 8 defencemen · 92% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Jake Christiansen, Colton White.

What the Quant Says

12th in even-strength expected goals against, and home to the single largest disagreement between play and result in this book. Zach Werenski put up 81 points in 26:37 a night and had the expected goals run 78.0 to 63.9 in his favour — while the actual goals went 81-66 against him. That is a shortfall of roughly 29 goals in 1 season for 1 player, and nothing on his page explains it except luck.

Ivan Provorov took 1,643 5-on-5 minutes, more than any player in this edition, and came out above the line with the best goal margin on the club. Damon Severson quietly posted the best chance share on the roster at 56.0 per cent, 91st percentile, at 32. Denton Mateychuk is 22, plays 19 minutes, scored 13 goals from the blue line and was minus-21. Erik Gudbranson at 34 sat in the 1st percentile in chance share across 547 minutes, which is the one place this group is still paying a price.

What the Scout Says

One outstanding offensive defenceman and a group that cannot hold the front of its own net. Zach Werenski is elite and in the best stretch of his career, and he gets pucks through from the point at a rate that produces goals most defencemen do not score. He is not clearing his crease, and on a club that finished last in the league at killing penalties that is worth noticing.

Denton Mateychuk is the second skater and the same trade: excellent feet that let him escape forecheckers by turning through them and join the rush as a genuine fourth attacker, and an inability to clear his crease or win a net-front battle against men 40 pounds heavier. He compensates with feet and stick, ending plays before contact is available, which is the same solution Lane Hutson and Olen Zellweger run and carries the same open question. Damon Severson is a capable mover who is not clearing anybody either. Ivan Provorov is the one who does the honest work — he blocks shots, clears the net front, and has not missed a game in 4 seasons. Erik Gudbranson fights and is genuinely difficult to get past in a straight line, and cannot recover when beaten, which forwards have learned means changing direction. Dante Fabbro is not physically imposing and does not pretend to be.

The roster

Evidence 21 Full 3 Light 0 No record

Jake Christiansen

D · Columbus Blue Jackets

Undrafted, 152 games, and no goals in 40 of them.

Charlie Coyle

C · Columbus Blue Jackets

24 goals at 34, from a median of 16 feet.

Dante Fabbro

#15

D · Columbus Blue Jackets

54 goals for and 33 against, and expected goals that say it was a coin flip.

Adam Fantilli

#19

C · Columbus Blue Jackets

59 points at 21, and a shot chart that still has a step to take.

Conor Garland

#83

RW · Columbus Blue Jackets

5-10, 165 pounds, and the 18th percentile.

Jet Greaves

G · Columbus Blue Jackets

Undrafted, a career .913, and the reason this club stayed in games it had no business in.

Erik Gudbranson

#44

D · Columbus Blue Jackets

The 3rd overall pick in 2010, and the 1st percentile in expected goals.

Danton Heinen

#43

LW · Columbus Blue Jackets

612 games of being quietly useful, and the 95th percentile.

Kent Johnson

#91

C · Columbus Blue Jackets

The fifth pick in 2021, 170 pounds, and 22 points.

Ryan Lomberg

#94

LW · Columbus Blue Jackets

5-9, 59 penalty minutes, and 9 points.

Isac Lundeström

#21

C · Columbus Blue Jackets

405 games, and the 15th percentile in both columns.

Kirill Marchenko

#86

RW · Columbus Blue Jackets

102 goals in 292 games, from a second-round pick.

Denton Mateychuk

D · Columbus Blue Jackets

5-11, 13 goals from the blue line, and a minus-21 in the goals column.

Elvis Merzlikins

#90

G · Columbus Blue Jackets

274 games, and a .883 that has taken the job away from him.

Sean Monahan

#23

C · Columbus Blue Jackets

896 games, and 57 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet.

Valeri Nichushkin

#43

RW · Columbus Blue Jackets

6-4, 49 points, and the 97th percentile.

Mathieu Olivier

#24

RW · Columbus Blue Jackets

101 penalty minutes, 15 goals, and the 86th percentile.

Ivan Provorov

D · Columbus Blue Jackets

1,643 5-on-5 minutes, the most of anyone in this book.

Damon Severson

#78

D · Columbus Blue Jackets

855 games, and the best expected-goal share on the roster.

Cole Sillinger

C · Columbus Blue Jackets

33 points, and a shot chart that has not moved in 5 seasons.

Dmitri Voronkov

#10

LW · Columbus Blue Jackets

6-5, and the shortest average shot distance of any player in this edition.

Zach Werenski

D · Columbus Blue Jackets

81 points and 26 and a half minutes a night, and the goals still went against him.

Colton White

D · Columbus Blue Jackets

107 NHL games and not a single goal in any of them.

Miles Wood

#11

LW · Columbus Blue Jackets

53 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet, and 8 goals.

How they were used

2025-26 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.