Columbus Blue Jackets

What the Quant Says

273 goals, and 18th in creating chances at even strength at 2.49 expected goals per 60 — which is a long way short of what the goal total implies. Columbus finished 29.4 goals above expectation at five-on-five, 2nd in the league.

Zach Werenski put up 82 points from the blue line on 298 shots, the most by any defenceman in this edition. Kirill Marchenko scored 31 and was plus-29, the best rating on the club by 9. Adam Fantilli scored 31 at 20 years old. Kent Johnson had 57 points on a 19.5 per cent shooting rate, and Sean Monahan 57 in 54 games before injury.

Dmitri Voronkov is the one whose scoring will survive: 62 per cent of his shots came from inside 20 feet at a median of 14, which is where 23 goals genuinely come from. Kent Johnson's rate will halve.

What the Scout Says

Two young scorers, one creator, and a group of heavy men who live in the blue paint.

Adam Fantilli is fast and shoots well and does not yet control a shift — 23 assists in 82 games and a habit of losing the puck in the neutral zone at speed. Kirill Marchenko uses 6-3 to protect pucks rather than to win them, and the 43 assists came from learning to hold it on the wall instead of shooting the first look. Kent Johnson is the most creative player here, with exceptional hands in small areas and passes nobody else on this roster looks for — and at 170 pounds he is removed from possession as a matter of routine, which is why he works from the perimeter.

Sean Monahan is the most complete offensive centre on the club and cannot skate any more, so everything comes a half-beat earlier than the man defending him expects. Dmitri Voronkov is 6-5 and 234 and is very hard to move from the front of the net, with a quicker release in tight than the frame suggests.

Underneath, it is all weight. Mathieu Olivier is 6-1 and 232 and among the most feared forwards in the league to play against. Charlie Coyle is very hard to move off a puck and has redirected his game toward the parts that age well. Miles Wood is among the fastest men in the league in a straight line and the hands have never functioned at that speed. Boone Jenner has never adjusted the temperature and has played 53 games in two years.

What the Quant Says

268 goals conceded and 26th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.68 per 60, with a 25th-ranked chance share. This is the half of the club the record hid.

Werenski played 1,650 five-on-five minutes — more than any player in this edition — at 26:45 a night, and posted 52.1 per cent. Nobody else on the blue line reached the 60th percentile. Ivan Provorov played 82 games at 23:21 and his on-ice goals came out 63-64 against an expected 53-60: ten goals of finishing above expectation, and the plus-11 is most of the way explained by it. Damon Severson got nine goals of the same help.

Read the ratings on this blue line with real suspicion. Jake Christiansen finished plus-6 on a 42.9 per cent chance share — the 8th percentile — across 793 minutes, and Denton Mateychuk's plus-4 at 21 came with eight goals of finishing luck attached. Dante Fabbro, claimed on waivers in November for nothing, was the club's second-best defenceman.

What the Scout Says

One of the best defencemen in the league, and then a considerable drop.

Werenski's skating is powerful rather than dazzling and there is nothing in the puck game he cannot do; 23 goals from the blue line is a genuine release rather than a deflection total. He is willing rather than punishing physically, and 31 penalty minutes at nearly 27 a night is exceptional discipline.

Ivan Provorov defends his net front, takes contact, and has an iron-man record that is genuinely unusual — nine straight seasons of 80 games — and has never been the puck-mover his draft position implied, so 26 assists at 23 minutes a night is a man getting it to somebody else immediately. Dante Fabbro's release is better than his reputation, the first pass is quick, and he was claimed off waivers for nothing.

Damon Severson joins a rush willingly and the errors live in the second decision, and 47 penalty minutes is a defenceman who is beaten and reaching. Denton Mateychuk at 21 escapes pressure by changing direction and carries out under control, and at 5-11 cannot clear a net front or win a board battle — the whole question is whether a system and a partner can be found that make the skating matter more than the size. Jake Christiansen took 84 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet and 1 per cent from inside 20.

What the Quant Says

Elvis Merzlikins went 26-21-5 with an .8921 across 53 games. The club's goaltending came in 9.4 goals worse than the chances faced, 22nd in the league, in front of a defence that was 26th at suppressing them.

Set that against the finishing: 2nd in the league at one end, 22nd at the other, and 2 points short of a playoff place. The arithmetic is not subtle.

Jet Greaves stopped .9381 in 11 games with 2 shutouts — 46 points of save percentage clear of the man who played 53, on the same team in the same season. Eleven games is not enough to know anything. It is more than enough to justify finding out.

What the Scout Says

The position that cost this club its season, and the answer may already be on the roster.

Elvis Merzlikins is athletic and scrambly rather than structured — quick, flexible, capable of saves from broken positions, and square less often than a goaltender at this level should be. The rebound control is the specific weakness and has been for six years: he pushes pucks back into the slot and then has to make a second save, which is why the numbers collapse against clubs that attack the net front, and this defence concedes more interior chances than almost anybody's. He plays with visible emotion and it cuts both ways — the good nights are excellent and the bad ones unravel quickly.

Jet Greaves is 6 feet, which is small, and compensates with anticipation rather than coverage: he reads a play early, gets to his spot before the puck arrives, and is unusually calm for a goaltender who has to move as much as he does. The rebound control is good, which is exactly what his partner lacks and exactly what this defence needs. 339 shots is not a sample. It is a reason to look.

What the Quant Says

21st at 6.48 expected goals per 60, over 3:58 a night — the fewest power-play minutes of any club in the league. A below-average unit that barely got to play.

Voronkov led it with 8 power-play goals from the net front, Monahan 7 in 54 games, Werenski 5, Johnson 4. The personnel is reasonable and the volume is the problem: a club that draws the fewest penalties in hockey has removed one of the two phases where it could be better than its opponents.

What the Scout Says

A workable unit that almost never gets to play.

Zach Werenski runs it, and he is as dangerous a power-play defenceman as there is — he holds the puck at the line until a killer commits and then either shoots a release that is heavier than it looks or finds the man arriving. Dmitri Voronkov is the net-front man and there is no argument about the fit: 6-5, 234 pounds, 8 power-play goals, and unmovable.

Sean Monahan runs the second half of it from the top of the circle with the best passing on the roster, and Kent Johnson is the one man here who beats a killer one-on-one. Kirill Marchenko is the shooting threat from the off wing. That is five men who each do a different necessary thing, and the unit finished 21st on the fewest power-play minutes in the league — a club that does not draw penalties cannot fix a power play by improving it.

What the Quant Says

25th at 7.17 expected goals against per 60, over 4:31 a game. Poor, and the roster has spent the summer getting more penalised rather than less.

Mathieu Olivier took 139 penalty minutes, the most on the club by 84, and the summer additions include Miles Wood at 48 in 37 games and Brendan Smith at 33 in 32. Provorov and Fabbro do the defensive work, Zachary Aston-Reese and Isac Lundeström the forward minutes — Lundeström's 10 penalty minutes in 79 games are the most useful line in his record for this club.

A team that missed the playoffs by 2 points and finished 25th on the kill has an obvious place to look.

What the Scout Says

The phase that decided two points, and it is getting worse rather than better.

Ivan Provorov and Dante Fabbro do the defensive work and both are sound at it — Provorov defends the net front by weight, Fabbro by position, and neither takes many penalties. Isac Lundeström is the summer's best signing for this specific purpose: a fourth-line centre who wins pucks back, does not lose them in dangerous places, and took 10 penalty minutes in 79 games. Zachary Aston-Reese blocks shots and is trusted defensively.

The problem is the men going the other way. Mathieu Olivier's 139 penalty minutes are the most on the club by a distance, and the summer added Miles Wood at 48 in 37 games and Brendan Smith at 33 in 32. A 25th-ranked kill being asked to work more often is a decision, and the club made it deliberately.