This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Adam Fantilli
Columbus Blue Jackets Center
Third overall at eighteen, twelve goals in forty-nine games, and a minus-twenty-one.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | CBJ | 49 | 12 | 15 | 27 | -21 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 115 | 10.4 | 15:43 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 49 | 12 | 15 | 27 | -21 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 115 | 10.4 | 15:43 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
12 goals and 15 assists in 49 games — 27 points at 15:43 a night, minus-21, with 1 power-play goal and 1 game-winner on 115 shots, converting at 10.43 per cent, and 16 penalty minutes. He was 19, and a skate cut to the calf ended the season in January.
44.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 628 minutes, the 16th percentile. His ice went 26-44 against an expectation of 24.17-30.64 — almost exactly what the chances said.
The minus-21 in forty-nine games is the loudest number here and it belongs to the club.
The Finesse Game
115 attempts at a median of 29 feet, with 26 per cent from inside 20 and 21 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 10.43 per cent.
The skating is elite and it is the first thing anybody notices — he is among the fastest men in the league at 6-2 and he carries the puck through the neutral zone rather than dumping it. He gains the offensive line under control almost every time he touches it.
15 assists in 49 games. The passing is a year behind the feet and the decision at the end of the rush is still a nineteen-year-old’s.
The Physical Game
6-2 and 205 and the frame is filling. He forechecks hard and finishes checks, and he will go to the front of the net, which for a third-overall centre is not guaranteed.
16 penalty minutes in 49 games. He does not agitate and he does not retaliate.
The Intangibles
Third overall in 2023, out of Michigan, and an NHL centre at 18 on a club that finished twenty-ninth.
Twenty-seven points in forty-nine games at nineteen is a genuinely good rookie season, and the minus-21 is the second-worst defensive structure in hockey rather than the player. He is the reason to look at this club at all.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
- he lacks itraised, and he does not have it
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- sheltered· is started in the attacking end
62% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 93rd percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it
“**The skating is elite and it is the first thing anybody notices** — he is among the fastest men in the league at 6-2 and he carries the puck through the neutral zone rather than dumping it. **He gains the offensive line under control almost every time he touches it.**”
“**He forechecks hard and finishes checks**, and he will go to the front of the net, which for a third-overall centre is not guaranteed.”
“**He forechecks hard and finishes checks**, and he will go to the front of the net, which for a third-overall centre is not guaranteed.”
“He does not agitate and he does not retaliate.”
“He does not agitate and he does not retaliate.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 628 minutes
- Expected goals
- 44.1%
- 16th pct
- Shot attempts
- 46.4%
- 24th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 26 for, 44 against. Expected: 24.2 and 30.6.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 56 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 49 games
- Top speed
- 22.7 mph
- 76th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 3.65 a game
- Distance
- 2.72 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 87.7 mph
- 56th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.5
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2023-24 · 628 minutes at five-on-five
- Johnny Gaudreauoff the roster28%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- CBJ took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.1% — 1.8 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Fourth line, 628 minutes at five-on-five — 27th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Provorov | 39.6% | 47.0% | 46.6% |
| Jake Bean | 44.8% | 43.8% | 44.7% |
| Justin Danforth | 47.9% | 42.6% | 46.2% |
39.6% together, 47.0% for him apart and 46.6% for Provorov apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
169 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 11 of them goals. His median goal came from 26 feet. 27% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.