Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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4

Cole Sillinger

Columbus Blue Jackets Center

The tenth percentile of chances, seventeen goals underwater, and he is twenty-one.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22CBJ79161531-223700314810.813:42
2022-23CBJ643811-2322200933.213:19
2023-24CBJ77131932-4461011578.316:07
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—220324274-491053043988.014:26

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

13 goals and 19 assists in 77 games — 32 points at 16:07 a night, minus-4, with 1 power-play goal and 1 game-winner on 157 shots at 8.28 per cent, and 46 penalty minutes.

43.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,017 minutes, the 14th percentile — the worst mark of any regular on this roster. His ice went 43-45 against an expectation of 40.15-51.55 — five goals conceded above expectation on top of the worst chance share on the club.

The Finesse Game

157 attempts at a median of 26 feet, with 35 per cent from inside 20 and 22 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 8.28 per cent against a career 8.04.

The shot is ordinary and the volume is high, which is the shape of a young centre being asked to carry more than he can. Thirty-two goals in 220 career games.

19 assists. He moves the puck simply and he does not create; the passing is competent rather than a strength.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 202 and heavy for the height. He forechecks hard and he finishes checks, and he competes on the wall against men who are bigger.

46 penalty minutes in 77 games and 105 in 220 for his career is a moderate rate, and a share of it is the stick foul that follows losing a step.

The Intangibles

Twelfth overall in 2021, out of Sioux Falls, and 220 NHL games and 74 points at 21 with a career minus-49.

He has played three full NHL seasons and is still twenty-one. Being handed a thousand five-on-five minutes at nineteen and twenty on the worst defensive structure in the East is the least useful development a young centre can be given, and the tenth percentile of chances is very largely that rather than him.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “**He forechecks hard and he finishes checks**, and he competes on the wall against men who are bigger.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “**He forechecks hard and he finishes checks**, and he competes on the wall against men who are bigger.”

  • fouls-when-beatena strength· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “46 penalty minutes in 77 games and 105 in 220 for his career is a moderate rate, and a share of it is the stick foul that follows losing a step.”

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “19 assists. He moves the puck simply and he does not create; the passing is competent rather than a strength.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,017 minutes

Expected goals
43.8%
14th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.9%
34th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 43 for, 45 against. Expected: 40.1 and 51.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
27th
Numbers
14th

The two rank him within 13 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 64 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 77 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
26th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.83 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.58 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.3 mph
66th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1017 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
CBJ took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.8% — 2.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,017 minutes at five-on-five — 60th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alexandre Texier43.3%44.2%42.6%
Damon Severson43.0%44.2%50.7%
Zach Werenski46.4%42.5%48.6%

43.3% together, 44.2% for him apart and 42.6% for Texier apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

210 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 35% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.