Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

24

Mathieu Olivier

Columbus Blue Jackets Right Wing

Undrafted, 232 pounds, and 239 penalty minutes in 168 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20NSH8011+1400060.07:33
2020-21NSH30325-1701002512.010:55
2021-22NSH10011-31400050.010:06
2022-23CBJ6651015-2081001756.711:38
2023-24CBJ545712-470011559.111:17
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—168132134-272391121667.811:06

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

5 goals and 7 assists in 54 games — 12 points at 11:17 a night, minus-4, with 1 shorthanded goal and 1 game-winner on 55 shots at 9.09 per cent, and 70 penalty minutes.

44.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 579 minutes, the 20th percentile. His ice went 19-23 against an expectation of 20.40-25.18 — two fewer goals conceded than the chances called for.

The Finesse Game

55 attempts at a median of 20 feet, with 50 per cent from inside 20 and 19 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 9.09 per cent. Thirteen goals in 168 NHL games.

7 assists. He does not create, he does not carry the puck and the club does not ask — the job is to arrive first, finish the check and change.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 232, and this is the entire report. He finishes every check and he hurts people, and he leads most lineups he is in for hits despite playing eleven minutes.

239 penalty minutes in 168 games — a minute and a half a game across five seasons — and he will fight anybody. He takes liberties and he answers for them.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, out of Rimouski, and 168 NHL games at 27 across five seasons and two clubs.

An undrafted forward who reaches the NHL by being 232 pounds and willing has one skill and it is a real one, and on a club that conceded 300 goals and was 31st at suppressing chances, seventy penalty minutes in fifty-four games is a cost the results do not obviously justify.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “**He finishes every check and he hurts people**, and he leads most lineups he is in for hits despite playing eleven minutes.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “**6-1 and 232, and this is the entire report.**”

  • takes-libertiesa strength· crosses the line and knows where it is

    “**239 penalty minutes in 168 games** — a minute and a half a game across five seasons — and **he will fight anybody.** **He takes liberties and he answers for them.**”

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “**Undrafted**, out of Rimouski, and **168 NHL games at 27** across five seasons and two clubs.”

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “**He does not create, he does not carry the puck and the club does not ask** — the job is to arrive first, finish the check and change.”

  • transitionhe lacks it· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “**He does not create, he does not carry the puck and the club does not ask** — the job is to arrive first, finish the check and change.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 579 minutes

Expected goals
44.8%
20th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.8%
21st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 19 for, 23 against. Expected: 20.4 and 25.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
20th
Numbers
20th

The two rank him within 0 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 54 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
26th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.78 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.79 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.8 mph
56th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 579 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
CBJ took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.8% — 1.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
579 minutes at five-on-five — 23rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Sean Kuraly45.9%43.4%42.4%
Erik Gudbranson35.3%49.9%44.7%
Zach Werenski48.2%43.1%48.1%

45.9% together, 43.4% for him apart and 42.4% for Kuraly apart. Kuraly was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Kuraly than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

78 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 7 feet. 50% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 19% from beyond forty.