This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →
Justin Danforth
Columbus Blue Jackets Right Wing
Undrafted, five foot eight, and fifty-six per cent of his shots from inside twenty feet.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | CBJ | 45 | 10 | 4 | 14 | -5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 72 | 13.9 | 12:34 |
| 2022-23 | CBJ | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 20.0 | 13:23 |
| 2023-24 | CBJ | 71 | 10 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 86 | 11.6 | 14:16 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 122 | 22 | 21 | 43 | -18 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 168 | 13.1 | 13:36 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
10 goals and 16 assists in 71 games — 26 points at 14:16 a night, minus-10, with 1 game-winner on 86 shots, converting at 11.63 per cent, and 26 penalty minutes. A career high in every column.
45.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 870 minutes, the 22nd percentile. His ice went 36-41 against an expectation of 33.41-39.82.
The Finesse Game
86 attempts at a median of 16 feet, with 56 per cent from inside 20 and 8 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 11.63 per cent.
At 5-8 and 193 pounds he shoots almost entirely from the paint, which requires a willingness most players that size do not have and is the reason he has an NHL career at all.
16 assists. He moves the puck quickly and the hockey sense is well ahead of the tools.
The Physical Game
5-8 and 193, and he is one of the smallest forwards in this edition. He cannot win a puck on the wall against a defenceman and he is moved off the front of the net at will, and he goes back to both.
26 penalty minutes in 71 games and 40 in 122 for his career is a low rate. He does not agitate and he does not retaliate.
The Intangibles
Undrafted, out of Sacred Heart, with four seasons in Finland and Russia before he ever played an NHL game, and 122 NHL games and 43 points at 31.
A 5-8 undrafted forward who reaches the NHL at 28 and holds a top-nine job at 31 has done something almost nobody does, and on a roster of nine top-ten picks he is a useful corrective.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 870 minutes
- Expected goals
- 45.6%
- 22nd pct
- Shot attempts
- 47.4%
- 30th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 36 for, 41 against. Expected: 33.4 and 39.8.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 39 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 201 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2023-24 · 870 minutes at five-on-five
- Sean Kuraly43%
- Johnny Gaudreauoff the roster30%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- CBJ took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.6% — 0.3 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- 870 minutes at five-on-five — 46th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Kuraly | 48.1% | 43.8% | 40.1% |
| Ivan Provorov | 48.8% | 43.8% | 45.2% |
| Erik Gudbranson | 41.9% | 47.4% | 44.5% |
48.1% together, 43.8% for him apart and 40.1% for Kuraly apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
138 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 56% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.