Columbus Blue Jackets

What the Quant Says

214 goals, 30th in the league.

Columbus created 2.416 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 25th, and took 44.9 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 30th, and 44.1 per cent of the expected goals, 29th.

At five-on-five it scored 143 goals against an expectation of 155.4 — a shortfall of 12.4, 27th in the league.

Johnny Gaudreau had 21 goals and 74 points and a minus-33, one season after 115 points and a plus-64 somewhere else. Boone Jenner scored 26 goals in 68 games and finished minus-32, which is a captain's season in two numbers that cannot both be about him.

Patrik Laine had 22 goals and 52 points in 55 games, Jack Roslovic 33 assists, Kent Johnson 16 goals and 40 points at 20 and Kirill Marchenko 21 goals and 4 assists as a rookie.

Damon Severson arrives from New Jersey with 33 points and a 59.7 per cent chance share, and Ivan Provorov from Philadelphia with 27 points at 23:01 a night.

What the Scout Says

A hundred-and-one-mile-an-hour shot, a Hobey Baker winger having the worst season of his career, and a rookie with twenty-one goals and four assists.

Patrik Laine is 6-4 and 208 and shoots at 101.1 mph, the 98th percentile, taking 38 per cent of his attempts from beyond 40 feet. He is the exception this book keeps failing to find: 45 slap shots and five goals from beyond forty feet, which almost nobody else in this edition manages.

Johnny Gaudreau is 5-9 and 163 and had 21 goals and 53 assists. He is a 104th-overall pick and a Hobey Baker who signed here for seven years to be closer to family — a legitimate reason and the whole explanation for why the best free agent of his summer went to the club that finished thirtieth.

Boone Jenner is 6-2 and 204, the captain, and has ten seasons and 657 games in one organisation. He scored 26 goals in 68 games; he has played 68, 59 and 41 games in three of the last four years, and the availability is the question rather than the captaincy.

Kent Johnson was fifth overall in 2021 and had 40 points at 20 at 170 pounds, in the bottom fifth of the league for speed. Kirill Marchenko scored 21 goals and 4 assists, the most lopsided rookie line in this book. Mathieu Olivier took 81 penalty minutes in 11 minutes a night.

What the Quant Says

Columbus allowed 3.043 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 31st in the league, and conceded 330 goals, 31st.

At five-on-five it conceded 231 goals against an expectation of 196.9, and the club's goaltending came in 34.1 goals worse than the chances it faced, 31st in the league. Thirty-one and thirty-one. The two halves of a bad defensive record arriving together.

Andrew Peeke played 80 games at 21:15 and finished minus-41. His ice went 44-91 at five-on-five — the worst goal differential in the National Hockey League by twelve. He is a third-pair defenceman who spent a full season as the first-pair right side because Zach Werenski played thirteen games and Vladislav Gavrikov was traded in March.

Erik Gudbranson is 6-5 and held a 40.7 per cent chance share, the lowest of any defenceman here, and took 77 shots on goal from beyond 40 feet without scoring — the second-largest such total in the league.

Ivan Provorov arrives having taken 74 shots from beyond 40 feet without scoring, third in the league, which puts the two of them on the same blue line. Damon Severson arrives from New Jersey's second pair with the 98th percentile of chance share, earned behind Dougie Hamilton and Jack Hughes. Vladislav Gavrikov has gone to Los Angeles.

What the Scout Says

A minus-41 in a job he should never have had, and two arrivals bought to make sure it does not happen again.

Andrew Peeke is 6-3 and 214 and was 34th overall in 2016 out of Notre Dame. He is one of the slowest defencemen in the league and he played 21 minutes a night against other clubs' best forwards. He is a third-pair defenceman who was asked to be something else for a full season, and the record of it will follow him for years.

Ivan Provorov is 6-1 and 224 and was seventh overall in 2015, with seven seasons in Philadelphia as their most-played defenceman. He arrives to play 23 minutes, and the possession numbers say Philadelphia had been asking the same thing of him for years without it working.

Damon Severson is 6-2 and 204 and has 647 games in one organisation, signed here for eight years at 29. The 98th-percentile possession season is the reason it was signed; the caution is that it was earned on New Jersey's second pair, and Columbus has nothing resembling that above him.

Erik Gudbranson was third overall in 2010 and has 765 career penalty minutes and 28 goals in 711 games — a top-three pick who has never been better than a third-pair defenceman. The size arrived. The 5th-percentile possession share arrived with it.

Adam Boqvist was eighth overall in 2018 and has never played more than 52 games in a season. Nick Blankenburg is 5-9, undrafted, and played 19 minutes a night in his first real run.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 34.1 goals worse than the chances it faced, 31st in the league. Only San Jose was worse, and Columbus used six goaltenders to get there.

Elvis Merzlikins went 7-18-2 with an .8763 and a 4.23 in 30 games, facing 889 shots. His save percentage has fallen in each of his four seasons, from .9227 to .8763, and his career line across 150 games is a .9060.

Daniil Tarasov went 4-11-1 with an .8920 and a 3.91 in 17 games at 24, facing 528 — the best figure in the Columbus crease last season.

Spencer Martin arrives from Vancouver, where he went 11-15-1 with an .8711 in 29 games, the worst save percentage in the league — and posted the best one in it the season before.

Joonas Korpisalo played 28 games here and has gone to Ottawa, and Michael Hutchinson 16 and has gone to Detroit.

A club that conceded chances at the 31st-best rate in the league answered it by adding the goaltender who had just posted the worst save percentage in hockey. There is a case for that — his previous season was the best in the league — and the club needs it to be right.

What the Scout Says

Six goaltenders used, three still here, and none of them has posted a .900 in Columbus.

Elvis Merzlikins is 6-3 and 190 and has fallen from .9227 to .8763 in four consecutive seasons. That is not a slump; it is a trend, and the 42 in positioning is the lowest goaltending grade in this chapter. There is a career .9060 across 150 games underneath it and very little recent evidence for it.

Daniil Tarasov is 6-5 and 203 and posted the best save percentage in the crease at .8920, which is the sentence that describes the season. He is 24 and enormous and has 21 NHL games.

Spencer Martin arrives at 6-3 and 191 with the worst save percentage in the league behind him and the best one in it the season before that. Columbus is betting that the second season was the aberration. If it is wrong, this page reads the same way next year.

What the Quant Says

12th in the league at 6.662 expected goals per 60, over 4:42 a night — the fourth-fewest power-play minutes of any club. The only department in which this club was above average.

Patrik Laine scored 8 power-play goals, Boone Jenner 7, Kirill Marchenko 7, Kent Johnson 5, Emil Bemstrom 3, Johnny Gaudreau 3, Jack Roslovic 2, Cole Sillinger 2 and Egor Chinakhov 1. Damon Severson scored 1 elsewhere.

Patrik Laine has 69 career power-play goals in 462 games — by rate the most on the roster by a distance — and Johnny Gaudreau 49 in 682. Boone Jenner has 36 in 657, Jack Roslovic 16 in 386 and Damon Severson 12 in 647.

Patrik Laine's shot is measured at 101.1 mph, the 98th percentile, and it is the reason the twelfth-best rate in hockey came out of a club that finished thirtieth. This is the one thing Columbus does well.

What the Scout Says

Twelfth in the league by rate, on the fourth-fewest power-play minutes, and it is entirely one shot.

Patrik Laine has 69 career power-play goals in 462 games and scored 8 in 55. He is 6-4, he takes it from the top of the circle, and the 94 in his shot grade is the highest on any card in this chapter.

Johnny Gaudreau has 49 career power-play goals in 682 games and is the man who finds him. At 5-9 and 163 pounds he plays the half-wall and the whole unit is arranged around the pass from there to the circle.

Boone Jenner has 36 in 657 games and stands in front. Kirill Marchenko scored 7 as a rookie and Kent Johnson 5 at 20.

This is the one part of the club that works, and it works because two men who have done it for a decade are still doing it on a team that finished thirtieth.

What the Quant Says

28th in the league at 7.946 expected goals against per 60, over 4:34 a night — the eighth-fewest shorthanded minutes of any club. Little ice, and it still went badly.

Jack Roslovic scored 2 shorthanded goals and Sean Kuraly 1. Damon Severson scored 1 elsewhere.

Boone Jenner has 5 career shorthanded goals in 657 games, the most on the roster, and Eric Robinson 3 in 259. Jack Roslovic has 2 in 386 and Sean Kuraly 1 in 418.

Sean Kuraly took the most defensive-zone usage in the National Hockey League and his ice went 23-55 at five-on-five. That number describes the club and not the man; somebody had to start those shifts.

Erik Gudbranson has 765 career penalty minutes and Mathieu Olivier 81 in 66 games at eleven and a half minutes a night. The weight is here. The rate is twenty-eighth.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-eighth by rate, and the man who takes the hardest minutes had the worst on-ice record in the league to show for it.

Sean Kuraly is 6-2 and 208 with a Stanley Cup Final behind him, and he is the man Columbus sends out to start shifts in its own end. His ice went 23-55 at five-on-five, which is close to the least informative number in this edition and the one that will be quoted.

Boone Jenner has 5 career shorthanded goals in 657 games, the most on the roster, and Eric Robinson 3 in 259 — undrafted out of Princeton, six seasons in one organisation, playing the hardest minutes on a bad team.

Erik Gudbranson is 6-5 and 222 with 765 career penalty minutes and Mathieu Olivier 6-1 and 232 with 169 in 114 games. Both of them clear a crease and neither of them changes the rate.

Ivan Provorov arrives with seven seasons of top-pair shorthanded work. He is the most credible addition to this unit in years, which says more about the unit than about him.