Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

43

Conor Sheary

Washington Capitals Left Wing

Nineteen goals at 5-8 and 180 pounds, off the 11th-fewest giveaways of 393 forwards.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16PIT447310-180005113.79:45
2016-17PIT61233053+242220615414.915:56
2017-18PIT79181230+21020414212.713:57
2018-19BUF78142034-18124031479.514:37
2019-20BUF/PIT63101323-5101011029.813:07
2020-21WSH5314822-1141018815.913:43
2021-22WSH71192443-21420512914.715:17
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—449105110215-1901202081312.913:59

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

71 games, 19 goals and 24 assists at 15:17 a night, minus-2, fourteen penalty minutes, 129 shots, two power-play goals and five game-winners. Undrafted, and 449 games and 215 points across seven seasons out of it, at 5-8 and 180 pounds.

The Finesse Game

Nineteen goals from 129 shots is 14.7 per cent, the 79th percentile, off 7.13 shots per 60 at the 48th, from a 22-foot median with sixty-one per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet, the 83rd percentile. A 180-pound winger who takes three shots in five from inside twenty feet is worth noticing.

2.37 even-strength points per 60 is the 79th percentile and only fourteen per cent of his points came on the power play, off 1:43 a night. Forty-three points, almost all of them at five-on-five.

0.663 giveaways per 60 is the 11th-fewest of the 393 forwards who played forty games, against 2.10 takeaways at the 80th percentile — which is the best pair of puck-management numbers on this roster.

48.8 per cent of the expected goals is the 41st percentile and 50.1 per cent of the attempts the 53rd, out of 59.6 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 59th-highest of 652 skaters.

His ice went 39-40 against an expectation of 35.73-37.51 — three ahead in front and two and a half more against.

The Physical Game

5-8 and 180 pounds — one of seven men in this edition who stand five foot eight.

2.49 hits per 60 is the 27th percentile and 2.43 blocks the 82nd, which for that size is a real figure, and fourteen penalty minutes came out of seventy-one games.

0.88 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.39 taken is a net of plus 0.50, the 87th percentile.

The Intangibles

22.6 mph is the 59th percentile among the 365 tracked forwards, 6.8 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 67th and 9.39 miles per 60 the 28th. His shot is 85.2 mph, the 17th percentile.

Ordinary speed, ordinary sprints, below-average ground and a soft shot, which at 5-8 is a set of measurements that ought to end a career and has not.

He is 30, undrafted out of Massachusetts, with 105 goals in 449 games. Nineteen goals, forty-three points at fifteen minutes a night, the giveaway rate and the shot chart are a genuinely good third-line winger. Everything the tracking measures says he should not be one, which is the most interesting thing in the file and the least useful.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    4 of his 19 goals late or in overtime, 97th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted, and 449 games and 215 points across seven seasons out of it, at 5-8 and 180 pounds.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 951 minutes

Expected goals
48.8%
46th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.1%
57th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 39 for, 40 against. Expected: 35.7 and 37.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
74th
Numbers
46th

The report ranks him 28 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 71 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
72nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.73 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.39 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.2 mph
41st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 939 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
WSH took 51.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.8% — 2.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 951 minutes at five-on-five — 56th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Martin Fehervary47.2%49.7%48.7%
Dmitry Orlov48.0%49.2%53.3%
John Carlson48.7%48.8%50.2%

47.2% together, 49.7% for him apart and 48.7% for Fehervary apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

180 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 19 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 46% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.