This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Connor McMichael
Washington Capitals Left Wing
The best expected-goal share on the club at 21, off the 14th-smallest workload of 393 forwards.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | WSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 9:54 |
| 2021-22 | WSH | 68 | 9 | 9 | 18 | -3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 8.6 | 10:28 |
| 2022-23 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 69 | 9 | 9 | 18 | -3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 8.5 | 10:28 |
This Season So Far
The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
68 games, 9 goals and 9 assists at 10:28 a night, minus-3, ten penalty minutes, 105 shots. Twenty-fifth overall in 2019 by Washington, two seasons, 69 games, 18 points.
The Finesse Game
56.4 per cent of the expected goals is the 88th percentile among forwards and 52.6 per cent of the attempts the 73rd — the best pair of shares of any Washington forward — out of 56.3 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 141st-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.
Ten minutes and twenty-eight seconds a night is the 14th-smallest workload of the 393 forwards who played forty games, and 8.85 shots per 60 is the 74th percentile. He shoots a great deal for the ice he gets.
Nine goals from 105 shots is 8.6 per cent, the 25th percentile, from a 19-foot median with sixty per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet — a slot shot chart that is not going in yet.
0.84 giveaways per 60 is the 9th percentile, which for a 21-year-old is the most encouraging thing in the file.
His ice went 27-29 against an expectation of 32.91-25.4 — six short in front and three and a half more against, and a 56.4 per cent chance share that produced a minus-3 is exactly the pattern a rookie’s finishing luck makes.
The Physical Game
6-0 and 180 pounds, and ten penalty minutes in sixty-eight games.
3.88 hits per 60 is the 50th percentile and 1.85 blocks the 57th, against one second a night short-handed.
0.42 penalties drawn per 60 and 0.42 taken.
The Intangibles
12.22 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 is the 24th-most of the 365 tracked forwards, at a 23.2 mph top speed and 21 years old.
9.99 miles per 60 is the 79th percentile, so the sprints come with volume behind them. His shot is 84.8 mph, the 15th percentile.
He is 21, twenty-fifth overall in 2019, with eighteen points in sixty-nine NHL games. The chance share, the sprint count, the giveaway rate and 105 shots off ten and a half minutes are four genuine reasons to think there is a player here. Nine goals, a soft shot and the fourteenth-smallest workload in the league are why the club has not yet decided.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- disciplined· stays out of the box
0.15 penalty minutes a game over 68, 7th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it
- drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there
56.4% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 49.9% for his club in the minutes he sat: +6.5, 93rd percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it
“12.22 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 is the 24th-most of the 365 tracked forwards, at a 23.2 mph top speed and 21 years old.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 709 minutes
- Expected goals
- 56.4%
- 91st pct
- Shot attempts
- 52.6%
- 75th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 27 for, 29 against. Expected: 32.9 and 25.4.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 68 games
- Top speed
- 23.2 mph
- 93rd pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 2.13 a game
- Distance
- 1.74 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 84.8 mph
- 38th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.1
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2021-22 · 709 minutes at five-on-five
- Lars Eller31%
- Conor Sheary30%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2021-22
- The club
- WSH took 51.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.4% — 5.3 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- Second line, 709 minutes at five-on-five — 33rd percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Fehervary | 59.9% | 54.5% | 45.8% |
| Lars Eller | 47.4% | 60.4% | 49.0% |
| Dmitry Orlov | 58.2% | 55.6% | 50.8% |
59.9% together, 54.5% for him apart and 45.8% for Fehervary apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
136 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 9 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 51% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.