Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

8

Alex Ovechkin

Washington Capitals Left Wing

The longest median shot distance of all 393 forwards, the most power-play ice, and fifty goals at 36.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2005-06WSH815254106+252213542512.221:37
2006-07WSH82464692-1952160839211.721:23
2007-08WSH826547112+28402201144614.623:06
2008-09WSH795654110+8721911052810.623:00
2009-10WSH725059109+4589130736813.621:48
2010-11WSH79325385+244170113678.721:22
2011-12WSH78382765-826130330312.519:48
2012-13WSH48322456+236160422014.520:53
2013-14WSH78512879-35482401038613.220:33
2014-15WSH81532881+10582501139513.420:20
2015-16WSH79502171+2153190839812.620:19
2016-17WSH82333669+650170731310.518:22
2017-18WSH82493887+332170735513.820:09
2018-19WSH81513889+740180533815.120:55
2019-20WSH68481967-1230130331115.420:40
2020-21WSH45241842-71290618213.219:30
2021-22WSH77504090+818161533415.020:34
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—12747806301410+837492855121606112.920:52

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

77 games, 50 goals and 40 assists at 20:34 a night, plus-8, eighteen penalty minutes, 334 shots, sixteen power-play goals, one short-handed and five game-winners. First overall in 2004 by Washington, seventeen seasons, 1,274 games, 1,410 points.

He has 780 career goals.

The Finesse Game

His median shot came from 36.8 feet, the longest of all 393 forwards who played forty games, and twenty-four per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet, the 2nd-lowest slot share of the same 393.

Only Patrik Laine took a smaller share of his shots from the dangerous ice, and nobody in the league shot from further out.

12.65 shots per 60 is the 7th-most of the 393 at 15.0 per cent, and his shot is 101.5 mph, the 3rd-hardest of the 365 forwards the tracking measures.

Read those four together and the player is completely described: the hardest shot in hockey, taken more often than almost anybody takes one, from further away than anybody else shoots, and it goes in fifteen times in a hundred.

2.96 even-strength points per 60 is the 29th-highest of the 393, and thirty-two per cent of his points came on the power play.

49.2 per cent of the expected goals is the 46th percentile and 49.6 per cent of the attempts the 46th, out of 75.1 per cent offensive-zone starts — the 2nd-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts. Four hundred and ninety-one attacking-zone shifts against 163 in his own end.

His ice went 67-54 against an expectation of 50.19-51.91. Seventeen goals better than the model in front, which is the largest surplus on this roster and the reason the shares below the chair do not matter as much as they look.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 238 pounds, and eighteen penalty minutes in seventy-seven games — 749 across 1,274.

5.87 hits per 60 is the 69th percentile and 0.95 blocks the 14th, against 0.42 penalties drawn per 60 at the 12th.

The Intangibles

He captained the club through 20:34 a night at 36, with 4:45 on the power play — the most of all 393 forwards who played forty games.

8.90 miles per 60 is the 19th-lowest of the 365 tracked forwards and 1.44 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 22nd-fewest. He covers less ground and sprints less often than almost anybody in the league, and he is 36.

He is 37 now, first overall in 2004, with 780 goals and 285 power-play goals in 1,274 games. Fifty goals at 36 came out of the softest chair in hockey, the largest power-play share in hockey and the hardest shot in hockey, and every one of those three is a club decision as much as a player’s. The skating says the chair is not optional any more. The shot chart says it does not have to be.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    36.9% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 99th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    15:14 a game at five-on-five, 95th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    75% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 100th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “He captained the club through 20:34 a night at 36, with 4:45 on the power play — the most of all 393 forwards who played forty games.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,173 minutes

Expected goals
49.2%
50th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.6%
51st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 67 for, 54 against. Expected: 50.2 and 51.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
98th
Numbers
50th

The report ranks him 48 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 77 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
51st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.49 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.05 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
101.5 mph
100th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1173 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
WSH took 51.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.2% — 1.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,173 minutes at five-on-five — 83rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Evgeny Kuznetsov50.5%43.5%43.7%
Tom Wilson47.9%50.1%52.1%
John Carlson47.5%50.3%51.3%

50.5% together, 43.5% for him apart and 43.7% for Kuznetsov apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

464 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 51 of them goals. His median goal came from 32 feet. 19% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 36% from beyond forty.