Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2023-24 report →

92

Evgeny Kuznetsov

Washington Capitals Center

Seventy-eight points off the 3rd-highest zone deployment of 652 skaters, and the 17th-most miles per 60 of 365 forwards.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14WSH17369-260102213.613:28
2014-15WSH80112637+10244011278.713:20
2015-16WSH82205777+273250419310.417:25
2016-17WSH82194059+184630417011.216:57
2017-18WSH79275683+34871818714.418:49
2018-19WSH76215172+75080319310.918:47
2019-20WSH63193352-24060012914.717:51
2020-21WSH4192029+7181047811.516:34
2021-22WSH79245478+74483420811.520:17
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—599153343496+7530842528130711.717:25

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

79 games, 24 goals and 54 assists at 20:17 a night, plus-7, forty-four penalty minutes, 208 shots, eight power-play goals, three short-handed and four game-winners. Twenty-sixth overall in 2010 by Washington, nine seasons, 599 games, 496 points.

The Finesse Game

Fifty-four assists against twenty-four goals, and 343 of 496 career points are assists, off 7.79 shots per 60 at the 60th percentile.

Seventy-eight points is his second-highest total and the highest since 2018.

2.27 even-strength points per 60 is the 74th percentile and thirty-five per cent of his points came on the power play, off 3:44 a night at the 98th percentile.

Fifty per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet at a 25-foot median.

49.6 per cent of the expected goals is the 50th percentile and 49.8 per cent of the attempts the 48th — out of 74.9 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 3rd-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts. Five hundred and one attacking-zone shifts against 168.

Level shares out of the third-softest chair in the league is the single hardest fact in this file to argue past.

His ice went 58-45 against an expectation of 47.19-47.96 — eleven goals better than the model in front and three fewer against.

He and Alex Ovechkin played 1,695 attempts together and barely a quarter of that apart — 447 attempts for Ovechkin without him, 315 for him without Ovechkin. Both men read around 43.5 per cent in those fragments, which is too small to mean anything except that the club never separated them.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 207 pounds, and forty-four penalty minutes in seventy-nine games.

1.57 hits per 60 is the 13th percentile and 0.94 blocks the 13th. He is at the bottom of the league in both.

0.86 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.67 taken.

The Intangibles

10.34 miles per 60 is the 17th-most of the 365 tracked forwards, with 11.5 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 at the 93rd percentile.

23.2 mph is the 88th percentile. All three skating measurements are among the best on the roster and the shot is 91.4 mph, the 61st.

He is 30, twenty-sixth overall in 2010, with 343 assists in 599 games and a career plus-75. The skating, the passing and the eleven-goal surplus in front are the case. Level possession shares out of the third-softest deployment in hockey, and a hit-and-block profile at the bottom of the league, are what a club is buying when it pays for this.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    14:58 a game at five-on-five, 92nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    75% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 99th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Fifty-four assists against twenty-four goals, and 343 of 496 career points are assists, off 7.79 shots per 60 at the 60th percentile.”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “10.34 miles per 60 is the 17th-most of the 365 tracked forwards, with 11.5 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 at the 93rd percentile.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,182 minutes

Expected goals
49.6%
54th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.8%
53rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 58 for, 45 against. Expected: 47.2 and 48.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
87th
Numbers
54th

The report ranks him 33 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 79 games

Top speed
23.2 mph
92nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
3.90 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.50 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.4 mph
74th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1171 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
WSH took 51.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.6% — 1.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,182 minutes at five-on-five — 84th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alex Ovechkin50.5%43.7%43.5%
Tom Wilson48.8%50.4%51.6%
John Carlson47.8%50.9%51.0%

50.5% together, 43.7% for him apart and 43.5% for Ovechkin apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

290 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 26 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 40% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.