Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

18

Gabriel Carlsson

Washington Capitals Defense

Thirty-eight games at 20.7 mph, and twenty-four goals scored on his ice against an expectation of seventeen and a half.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17CBJ2011-2000030.017:08
2017-18CBJ1402204000180.011:20
2018-19CBJ1000-1200010.09:21
2019-20CBJ6000-1200030.010:53
2020-21CBJ14134-64000147.114:47
2021-22CBJ38279+6100001811.112:16
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—7531316-422000575.312:33

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

38 games for Columbus, 2 goals and 7 assists at 12:16 a night, plus-6, ten penalty minutes, 18 shots. Twenty-ninth overall in 2015 by Columbus, six seasons, 75 games, 16 points.

Four hundred and forty-four minutes of five-on-five ice and thirty-eight games are both short of the gate this book uses, so what follows is described rather than ranked.

The Finesse Game

2.32 shots per 60 is a very low rate even for a third-pair defenceman, from a 49-foot median with fourteen per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet, and two goals from eighteen shots.

1.23 even-strength points per 60, and none of his nine points came on the power play — none in seventy-five career games.

0.51 giveaways per 60 against 0.90 takeaways is the tidiest pair of hands in this chapter, on a sample too small to lean on.

46.8 per cent of the expected goals against 47.9 per cent of the attempts across 444 five-on-five minutes, out of 55.4 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 172nd-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

His ice went 24-17 against an expectation of 17.48-19.86 — six and a half better than the model in front and nearly three fewer against, on a Columbus club that finished 23rd in attempt share and conceded three hundred goals.

The Physical Game

6-5 and 195 pounds, and ten penalty minutes in thirty-eight games — twenty-two across seventy-five.

4.25 blocks per 60 and 3.48 hits, with 0:42 a night short-handed, and 0.64 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.64 taken.

A 6-5 defenceman hitting at that rate is low, and there is not enough here to say whether it is a style or a man being careful in a job he has never held for a full season.

The Intangibles

20.7 mph and 0.77 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60, both drawn from thirty-eight games and both very low — the slowest top speed in this chapter. A maximum scales with the shifts a man takes, so the figure is described rather than ranked, and 8.73 miles per 60 is a fair amount of ground.

His shot is 94.9 mph.

He is 25, twenty-ninth overall in 2015, with sixteen points in seventy-five games across six seasons. Seventy-five games in six years is the number the file turns on, and the on-ice ledger from thirty-eight of them is the only encouraging thing in it. The skating measurements say why the other five seasons happened.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 444 minutes

Expected goals
46.8%
29th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.9%
36th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 24 for, 17 against. Expected: 17.5 and 19.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
38th
Numbers
29th

The two rank him within 9 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 58 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 38 games

Top speed
20.7 mph
21st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.16 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.78 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.9 mph
68th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with CBJ · 444 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CBJ took 44.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.8% — 2.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 444 minutes at five-on-five — 15th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jakub Voracek40.3%50.0%43.7%
Jack Roslovic45.5%47.4%45.9%
Cole Sillinger48.1%46.3%44.5%

40.3% together, 50.0% for him apart and 43.7% for Voracek apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

22 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 37 feet. 14% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 68% from beyond forty.