Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

14

Nick Robertson

Toronto Maple Leafs Left Wing

Fifteen goals in 69 games at 12 minutes a night, and seven assists.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21TOR6011+1000090.09:26
2021-22TOR10101-44000147.110:16
2022-23TOR15235+20001277.410:53
2023-24TOR56141327+441019614.611:23
2024-25TOR6915722-11620311213.412:00
2025-26 so far
Career156322456+22430525812.411:28

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

15 goals and 7 assists in 69 games — 22 points at 12:00 a night, minus-1, with 3 game-winners and 16 penalty minutes on 112 shots.

49.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 47th percentile, across 718 minutes. His ice went 36-30 against an expectation of 26.06-26.47 — ten goals better than expected for and four worse against, on a third line.

The Finesse Game

112 attempts at a median of 29 feet with 28 per cent from inside 20, converting at 13.4 per cent. Fifteen goals in twelve minutes a night is a genuinely good rate and the shot is the reason he is in the league.

7 assists in 69 games is close to the lowest rate of any regular forward in this edition. He shoots, and when the shot is not there the play tends to stop.

The Physical Game

5-9 and 180 and among the smallest forwards on the roster. He does not forecheck with force and he will not win a puck against a defenceman.

16 penalty minutes in 69 games. He competes hard and he is out-muscled routinely, and the club has never been able to give him more than fourth-line minutes because of it.

The Intangibles

A second-round pick in 2019 who scored 55 goals in a junior season, and then lost most of three years to knee and shoulder injuries.

156 games and 56 points. He is 24, he has asked to be traded once, and he has scored 14 and 15 goals in his two healthy seasons on the fourth line of a club that has no room for him.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 718 minutes

Expected goals
49.6%
48th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.3%
44th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 36 for, 30 against. Expected: 26.1 and 26.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
25th
Numbers
48th

The numbers rank him 23 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 68 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 718 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
TOR took 50.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.6% — 0.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 718 minutes at five-on-five — 29th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Max Domi50.5%48.8%47.6%
Bobby McMann52.1%47.8%50.1%
Morgan Rielly47.5%50.9%50.1%

50.5% together, 48.8% for him apart and 47.6% for Domi apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

163 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 15 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 28% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 25% from beyond forty.