Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

23

Matthew Knies

Toronto Maple Leafs Left Wing

A median shot distance of fourteen feet and 62 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 — the most extreme net-front profile in this edition.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2022-23TOR3011+1200040.013:07
2023-24TOR80152035+94500311513.013:41
2024-25TOR78292958+74350615219.118:31
2025-26 so far
Career161445094+179050927116.216:01

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

29 goals and 29 assists in 78 games — 58 points at 18:31 a night, plus-7, with 5 power-play goals, 6 game-winning goals and 43 penalty minutes on 152 shots, converting at 19.1 per cent.

52.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 78th percentile. His ice went 38-32 against an expectation of 44.62-39.79 — seven goals of scoring missing and eight fewer conceded.

The Finesse Game

152 attempts at a median of 14 feet with 62 per cent from inside 20 feet and 10 per cent from beyond 40. That is the most extreme net-front shot profile of any forward in this edition and it is not close. He scores from the paint and he does not shoot from anywhere else.

29 assists in 78 games is better than the role suggests. He is the man who wins the puck on the wall and gives it to a scorer, and on a line with two of them that is a considerable job.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 232 pounds and among the heaviest forwards in the league. He wins every wall battle he enters, he cannot be moved from the front of a net, and he forechecks with genuine force.

43 penalty minutes in 78 games is a moderate rate and a share of it is the extra shove in the crease. He is not an agitator by trade and he does not back out of anything.

The Intangibles

A second-round pick in 2021 out of Minnesota, and he turned professional in time to play in the 2023 playoffs — 161 games and 94 points.

He is 23 and this was his first full season as a top-six winger. On a club that has spent a decade being told it is too soft, he is the answer it drafted itself.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,050 minutes

Expected goals
52.9%
78th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.3%
57th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 38 for, 32 against. Expected: 44.6 and 39.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
93rd
Numbers
78th

The two rank him within 15 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 82 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1050 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
TOR took 50.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.9% — 2.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,050 minutes at five-on-five — 68th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Auston Matthews56.0%45.6%55.1%
Mitchell Marner55.0%48.3%52.4%
Morgan Rielly53.7%52.4%47.9%

56.0% together, 45.6% for him apart and 55.1% for Matthews apart. He was worse away from Matthews, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Matthews did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

214 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 29 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 62% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 10% from beyond forty.