Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

8

Chris Tanev

Toronto Maple Leafs Defense

Undrafted, plus-31, and the 85th percentile of chances at 35 on 43 shot attempts all season.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11VAN2901100000150.013:47
2011-12VAN25022+102000150.016:43
2012-13VAN38257+4100012010.017:17
2013-14VAN6461117+128012659.220:44
2014-15VAN7021820+812001533.821:05
2015-16VAN6941418-88200429.521:45
2016-17VAN532810+314001395.120:21
2017-18VAN422911+78000316.519:47
2018-19VAN5521012+318000513.920:10
2019-20VAN6921820+441001454.419:32
2020-21CGY5621012+156000663.021:44
2021-22CGY8262228+3522003886.820:28
2022-23CGY6511213+721001751.320:07
2023-24CGY/DAL7521719+2224000563.619:41
2024-25TOR7531518+3124000437.019:45
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—86736172208+15321821107045.119:58

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 15 assists in 75 games — 18 points at 19:45 a night, plus-31, the best figure on the club, with 24 penalty minutes on 43 shot attempts.

53.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 85th percentile — the best mark of any defenceman on the roster. His ice went 54-34 against an expectation of 45.37-38.90 — twelve goals better than expected for and three worse against.

The Finesse Game

43 attempts in 75 games is the lowest volume of any regular defenceman in this edition, at a median of 55 feet with 72 per cent from beyond 40. He does not shoot and he has not for fifteen years: 36 goals in 867 games.

15 assists. The first pass is short, quick and correct, and under a heavy forecheck he goes off the wall rather than attempting anything. The whole puck game is designed to lose nothing.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 200 and he blocks shots at a rate among the highest in the league and has done for fifteen seasons. He clears the front of his own net, he defends the rush by standing men up at the blue line, and he does it without leaving his feet.

24 penalty minutes in 75 games at twenty minutes a night is a very low rate. He is essentially never beaten badly enough to reach.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, and he did not play organised hockey above the junior B level until he was 19 — 867 games and 208 points, and a body that has been broken repeatedly and reassembled every time.

He is 36 and playing in his hometown. The reputation for blocking shots with parts of the body nobody should is entirely earned.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    53.8% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 48.8% for his club in the minutes he sat: +5.0, 91st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    33% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 1st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “**Undrafted**, and he did not play organised hockey above the junior B level until he was 19 — **867 games and 208 points**, and a body that has been broken repeatedly and reassembled every time.”

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “**he blocks shots at a rate among the highest in the league and has done for fifteen seasons.** He clears the front of his own net, he defends the rush by standing men up at the blue line, and he does it without leaving his feet.”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He clears the front of his own net, he defends the rush by standing men up at the blue line, and he does it without leaving his feet.”

  • fouls-when-beatena strength· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “**24 penalty minutes in 75 games at twenty minutes a night** is a very low rate. He is essentially never beaten badly enough to reach.”

  • transitionhe lacks it· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “The first pass is short, quick and correct, and under a heavy forecheck he goes off the wall rather than attempting anything.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,171 minutes

Expected goals
53.8%
84th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.5%
38th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 54 for, 34 against. Expected: 45.4 and 38.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
55th
Numbers
84th

The numbers rank him 29 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 73 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 75 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
75th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.41 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.81 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.1 mph
29th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 89.7

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1171 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
TOR took 50.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.8% — 3.6 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,171 minutes at five-on-five — 82nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jake McCabe54.1%53.5%51.0%
Mitchell Marner54.6%53.3%54.2%
Matthew Knies56.8%52.2%51.6%

54.1% together, 53.5% for him apart and 51.0% for McCabe apart. McCabe was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for McCabe than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

61 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 32 feet. 7% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 72% from beyond forty.