Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

88

William Nylander

Toronto Maple Leafs Right Wing

45 goals on 253 shots and eight game-winners, in the best season of his career.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16TOR226713+141014314.016:20
2016-17TOR81223961-33290220510.716:01
2017-18TOR82204161+201050818410.916:41
2018-19TOR5472027-4161001305.415:31
2019-20TOR68312859-21290719715.718:13
2020-21TOR51172542+101640213312.816:36
2021-22TOR81344680-916130725613.318:16
2022-23TOR82404787+102890529313.718:33
2023-24TOR82405898+124113731612.719:55
2024-25TOR82453984+1026120825317.819:31
2025-26 so far
Career685262350612+3418474347201013.017:47

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

45 goals and 39 assists in 82 games — 84 points at 19:31 a night, plus-10, with 12 power-play goals and 8 game-winning goals on 253 shots, converting at 17.8 per cent.

49.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 47th percentile. His ice went 41-39 against an expectation of 48.91-49.74 — eight goals of scoring missing and eleven fewer conceded, which for a winger with this reputation defensively is not the number anybody expects.

The Finesse Game

The hands at speed are the best on the club. He carries the puck through the neutral zone at full pace without losing it, he changes his angle mid-stride, and he beats a defenceman one-on-one more often than anybody here.

253 attempts at a median of 29 feet with 33 per cent from inside 20. The release is quick and he shoots from range as readily as from the paint, and 17.8 per cent on that distribution is a very high rate.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 200 and he is not in the physical half of the game. He does not forecheck with force, he does not win pucks on the wall, and 26 penalty minutes in 82 games is a winger who is almost never involved in contact.

He takes a hit to make a play and he does not answer one. The criticism has followed him for a decade and the point totals have gone up every year regardless.

The Intangibles

Eighth overall in 2014, the son of a long-serving NHL forward, and 685 games and 612 points — all of it here, through a contract holdout in 2018 that cost him half a season.

He is 29. He has scored 40 or more in three of the last four years and he signed an eight-year extension in 2024.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,189 minutes

Expected goals
49.6%
48th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48%
32nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 41 for, 39 against. Expected: 48.9 and 49.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
48th

The report ranks him 36 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 79 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1189 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
TOR took 50.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.6% — 0.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,189 minutes at five-on-five — 84th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
John Tavares49.5%49.6%47.6%
Morgan Rielly48.5%50.4%50.3%
Oliver Ekman-Larsson47.3%50.9%51.0%

49.5% together, 49.6% for him apart and 47.6% for Tavares apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

345 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 46 of them goals. His median goal came from 23 feet. 34% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.