Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

21

Conor Timmins

Buffalo Sabres Defense

A right-shot depth defenceman on his fourth organisation at 27, with a plus-11 and 15 points.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20COL2000+2000010.010:25
2020-21COL31077+68000310.013:33
2021-22ARI6000-6000050.017:45
2022-23ARI/TOR2721214-180011910.515:06
2023-24TOR251910+918000254.016:01
2024-25TOR/PIT6831215+1130000694.316:55
2025-26 so far
Career15964046+21640011504.015:46

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 12 assists in 68 games for 15 points, plus-11, on 16:55 a night between Toronto and Buffalo.

68 games is comfortably a career high for a defenceman whose seasons have usually been interrupted. The plus-11 came largely in Toronto and should be read as the club rather than the player.

The Finesse Game

The puck game is the reason he keeps getting jobs. He moves it early and accurately, he sees an outlet under pressure, and he was a genuine offensive prospect in junior before the injuries.

69 shots in 68 games and 3 goals; the offence has never translated. What survives is a defenceman who does not stall a breakout, which is a real third-pair skill.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 213, and he does not use it. He defends with position and stick and is not a factor in front of his own net.

30 penalty minutes over 68 games. The concussions earlier in his career are the reason four organisations have had him and none has kept him long.

The Intangibles

A second-round pick whose first three professional seasons were largely lost to injury, and who has made himself into a serviceable NHL defenceman anyway.

The projection is a seventh defenceman who plays 50 games. On a blue line this crowded at the top and this thin behind it, that is a genuinely useful thing to have.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 962 minutes

Expected goals
51.7%
69th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.4%
68th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 48 for, 47 against. Expected: 40.4 and 37.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
8th
Numbers
69th

The numbers rank him 61 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 315 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 with TOR · 740 minutes at five-on-five

  • Simon Benoit61%
  • Oliver Ekman-Larsson17%
  • Morgan Rielly11%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
PIT took 49.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.7% — 2.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
962 minutes at five-on-five — 56th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Simon Benoit46.9%55.7%44.2%
William Nylander49.8%52.2%49.5%
Max Domi50.0%52.0%48.4%

46.9% together, 55.7% for him apart and 44.2% for Benoit apart. He was better away from Benoit, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Benoit.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

109 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 26 feet. 6% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 78% from beyond forty.