Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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28

Claude Giroux

Ottawa Senators Right Wing

A thousand games and 923 points, with the 26th-lowest slot share of 393 forwards and a 55.1 per cent attempt share that belongs to Florida.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2007-08PHI2000-2000020.09:35
2008-09PHI4291827+10142006713.415:10
2009-10PHI82163147-92380214511.016:37
2010-11PHI82255176+204783516914.819:24
2011-12PHI77286593+62960524211.621:33
2012-13PHI48133548-7226121379.521:10
2013-14PHI82285886+74670722312.620:26
2014-15PHI81254873-33614042799.020:34
2015-16PHI78224567-8536152419.120:33
2016-17PHI82144458-15385031997.019:07
2017-18PHI823468102+282090119317.620:22
2018-19PHI82226385+9242142299.621:27
2019-20PHI69213253+72871619710.718:59
2020-21PHI54162743-41210212013.318:06
2021-22PHI/FLA75214465-52650020510.219:04
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—1018294629923+3441886746264811.119:35

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

75 games between Philadelphia and Florida, 21 goals and 44 assists for 65 points at 19:04 a night, minus-5, twenty-six penalty minutes, 205 shots. Twenty-second overall in 2006, fifteen seasons, 1,018 games, 923 points.

One thousand and eighteen NHL games across fifteen seasons, all but the last three months of them in Philadelphia, and 923 points.

The Finesse Game

Six hundred and twenty-nine career assists against 294 goals across fifteen seasons, and he takes the 26th-lowest share of shots from the slot of the 393 qualified forwards.

Thirty-seven per cent from the slot at a 32-foot median — the 6th and 94th percentiles. This is a passer’s shot chart and it has been one for a decade.

8.60 shots per 60 is the 70th percentile at 10.2 per cent, against a career rate of 11.1 across 2,648 shots.

2.24 even-strength points per 60 is the 73rd percentile and thirty-five per cent of his points came on the power play, from 3:13 a night at the 91st.

54.6 per cent of the expected goals is the 82nd percentile and 55.1 per cent of the attempts the 86th. Those are the best shares of any forward arriving at this club, and the qualifier is the club he left: Florida finished 1st in the league in both measures. His own deployment was ordinary — 50.8 per cent of his end-zone starts came in the attacking end, the 319th of 652 skaters — so the shares are the roster around him rather than a soft chair.

His ice went 47-35 against an expectation of 50.32-41.90.

The Physical Game

2.85 hits per 60 is the 35th percentile and 0.67 blocks the 4th at 5-11 and 186 pounds. There is no physical game and there has not needed to be one.

1.01 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.55 taken is the 84th-percentile net.

The Intangibles

21.9 mph is the 20th percentile, 3.0 bursts per 60 the 20th, 9.46 miles per 60 the 33rd. At 34, every chip measurement is in the bottom third of the league.

He is 34 and returns to the province he was born in, having spent fifteen seasons in one uniform. The assist record and the shot chart are the two most stable things in this chapter.

The possession share is Florida’s and will not travel to a club that finished 21st. What travels is 629 assists and a power play that already rated 4th without him.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    33.3% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Six hundred and twenty-nine career assists against 294 goals across fifteen seasons, and he takes the 26th-lowest share of shots from the slot of the 393 qualified forwards.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “One thousand and eighteen NHL games across fifteen seasons, all but the last three months of them in Philadelphia, and 923 points.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,054 minutes

Expected goals
54.6%
84th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.1%
88th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 47 for, 35 against. Expected: 50.3 and 41.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
74th
Numbers
84th

The two rank him within 10 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 75 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
40th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.95 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.01 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.1 mph
77th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with PHI · 810 minutes at five-on-five

  • Cam Atkinsonoff the roster52%
  • Sean Couturieroff the roster29%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
FLA took 56.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.6% — 1.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
1,054 minutes at five-on-five — 69th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Cam Atkinson52.2%55.9%39.3%
Ivan Provorov49.5%56.9%46.3%
Travis Sanheim58.4%52.7%45.3%

52.2% together, 55.9% for him apart and 39.3% for Atkinson apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Atkinson behind.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

249 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 21 of them goals. His median goal came from 22 feet. 28% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 33% from beyond forty.