Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

61

Derick Brassard

Ottawa Senators Center

Nine hundred and fifty-one games and 522 points, with the 2nd-percentile block rate and the 83rd-percentile hit rate at 35.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2007-08CBJ17112-46000137.79:03
2008-09CBJ31101525+12173015917.014:25
2009-10CBJ7992736-17484001257.214:57
2010-11CBJ74173047-11556031839.317:02
2011-12CBJ74142741-204250312511.216:20
2012-13CBJ/NYR47121729+1163018813.616:34
2013-14NYR81182745+24670415911.315:48
2014-15NYR80194160+93460316811.317:24
2015-16NYR80273158+123080518214.817:53
2016-17OTT81142539+12243031957.217:23
2017-18OTT/PIT7221254603450319710.717:44
2018-19PIT/FLA/COL7014923-193920011012.715:00
2019-20NYI66102232-2163011109.113:42
2020-21ARI5381220-10124016711.914:48
2021-22PHI/EDM4681119+4161016212.912:54
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—951202320522-3143560029184311.015:56

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

46 games between Philadelphia and Edmonton, 8 goals and 11 assists at 12:54 a night, plus-4, sixteen penalty minutes, 62 shots. Nine hundred and fifty-one NHL games across fifteen seasons with seven clubs, and 522 points out of a sixth-overall pick.

The Finesse Game

1.95 even-strength points per 60 is the 61st percentile at thirteen minutes a night, which for a 35-year-old fourth-line centre is a real figure.

6.26 shots per 60 is the 30th percentile at 12.9 per cent, fifty-five per cent from the slot at a 21-foot median — ordinary volume from good places, on 93.6 mph at the 76th.

1.01 takeaways per 60 is the 11th percentile and 1.01 giveaways the 17th. He does very little with the puck in either direction.

46.5 per cent of the expected goals is the 22nd percentile and 47.4 per cent of the attempts the 28th, out of 51.0 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 306th of 652 skaters — dead level.

His ice went 23-16 against an expectation of 18.21-20.93 — five goals of surplus going forward and five fewer against than the model asked.

The Physical Game

8.29 hits per 60 is the 83rd percentile among forwards at 35 years old, which is the least expected figure in the file. 0.61 blocks per 60 is the 2nd percentile — the two halves point in opposite directions.

0.51 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.81 taken, and sixteen penalty minutes came out of forty-six games.

The Intangibles

22.5 mph is the 52nd percentile, 3.3 bursts per 60 the 25th, 9.83 miles per 60 the 65th. Ordinary speed, rarely sprinting, ordinary ground covered — at 35.

He is 35, a sixth-overall pick from 2006, and has played for seven clubs. The even-strength rate and the hit rate are better than a fifteenth season has any right to be; the block rate and the possession shares are what a fifteenth season usually looks like.

A club that finished 26th signing a 35-year-old fourth-line centre is buying depth, not a plan, and the file is exactly that.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “Nine hundred and fifty-one NHL games across fifteen seasons with seven clubs, and 522 points out of a sixth-overall pick.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 509 minutes

Expected goals
46.5%
27th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.4%
33rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 23 for, 16 against. Expected: 18.2 and 20.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
43rd
Numbers
27th

The two rank him within 16 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 46 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
67th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.72 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.12 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.6 mph
84th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with PHI · 364 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
EDM took 51.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.5% — 4.8 below the club he did it on.
The role
509 minutes at five-on-five — 19th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Cam Atkinson43.7%49.0%45.0%
Travis Sanheim55.9%42.2%47.6%
Joel Farabee40.8%49.1%46.3%

43.7% together, 49.0% for him apart and 45.0% for Atkinson apart. He was better away from Atkinson, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Atkinson.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

69 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 26 feet. 48% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.