Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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72

Thomas Chabot

Ottawa Senators Defense

The 2nd-most ice time of 202 defencemen and ten seconds a night short-handed, with the 91st-percentile giveaway rate.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17OTT1000-2000010.07:09
2017-18OTT6391625-1214000949.617:31
2018-19OTT70144155-12321121857.624:17
2019-20OTT7163339-18420001863.226:00
2020-21OTT4962531-15361011205.026:17
2021-22OTT5973138-3261011734.026:12
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—31342146188-621503147595.523:56

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

59 games, 7 goals and 31 assists for 38 points at 26:12 a night, minus-3, twenty-six penalty minutes, 173 shots. Eighteenth overall in 2015, six seasons, 313 games, 188 points, a career minus-62.

Twenty-six minutes and twelve seconds a night is the 2nd-most of the 202 defencemen who played forty games, behind Seth Jones by three seconds.

The Finesse Game

Thirty-one assists against seven goals in fifty-nine games, and 146 assists against 42 goals across six seasons — he walks the line looking for a pass.

6.72 shots per 60 is the 92nd percentile among defencemen and 173 shots in fifty-nine games is a real rate, from a 47-foot median that is the 16th percentile — he shoots from closer than five-sixths of the position.

1.13 even-strength points per 60 is the 70th percentile and thirty-four per cent of his points came on the power play, from 3:29 a night at the 97th.

2.64 giveaways per 60 is the 91st percentile. He has the puck constantly and loses it at close to the position’s highest rate.

49.0 per cent of the expected goals and 50.0 per cent of the attempts, from 57.1 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 122nd-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

His ice went 60-53 against an expectation of 52.48-54.73.

The Physical Game

2.83 hits per 60 is the 32nd percentile and 3.61 blocks the 31st at 6-1 and 200. Both are low for a man playing twenty-six minutes.

0.70 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.50 taken is the 92nd-percentile net, and twenty-six penalty minutes came out of fifty-nine games.

The Intangibles

Ten seconds a night short-handed is the 8th percentile among defencemen. A club that plays a man twenty-six minutes and keeps him off the penalty kill entirely is making a specific statement, and Ottawa’s kill finished 30th in the league.

21.9 mph is the 48th percentile, 2.0 bursts per 60 the 64th, 8.66 miles per 60 the 70th. Every chip measurement is ordinary and he covers 3.78 miles a game — the 4th-most of the 568 skaters who played forty, which is what twenty-six minutes will do.

He is 25 with 188 points and a career minus-62 on clubs that have finished 26th, 30th and 31st. The assist rate, the shot volume and the ice time are the case; the giveaways and the absence from the kill are the two things the file will not explain away.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    21:13 a game at five-on-five, 100th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Thirty-one assists against seven goals in fifty-nine games, and 146 assists against 42 goals across six seasons — he walks the line looking for a pass.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,252 minutes

Expected goals
49%
48th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50%
56th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 60 for, 53 against. Expected: 52.5 and 54.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
81st
Numbers
48th

The report ranks him 33 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 68 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 59 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
65th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.88 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.78 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.3 mph
56th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1252 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
OTT took 47.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.0% — 1.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,252 minutes at five-on-five — 88th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brady Tkachuk49.5%48.6%48.8%
Artem Zub51.7%47.7%45.3%
Josh Norris47.7%49.5%48.9%

49.5% together, 48.6% for him apart and 48.8% for Tkachuk apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

217 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 27 feet. 10% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 63% from beyond forty.