Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

19

Drake Batherson

Ottawa Senators Right Wing

A 78-point pace across forty-six games, out of the 19th-softest chair of 652 skaters, at the 36th-slowest top speed of 365 forwards.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19OTT20369-262021816.713:25
2019-20OTT233710-1213100329.415:34
2020-21OTT56171734-17850311115.316:28
2021-22OTT46172744+43230311015.418:56
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—145405797-2759110827114.816:41

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

46 games, 17 goals and 27 assists for 44 points at 18:56 a night, plus-4, thirty-two penalty minutes, 110 shots. One hundred and twenty-first overall in 2017, four seasons, 145 games, 97 points.

Forty-four points in forty-six games is a 78-point pace. He missed thirty-six.

The Finesse Game

Twenty-seven assists against seventeen goals in forty-six games — he is a distributor first and the career ratio says the same, with fifty-seven assists to forty goals across 145 games.

2.50 even-strength points per 60 is the 82nd percentile and thirty-two per cent of his points came on the power play, from 3:16 a night at the 92nd.

7.58 shots per 60 is the 56th percentile at 15.5 per cent, the 84th. Fifty-one per cent from the slot at a 25-foot median — ordinary places, above-average conversion, on 96.4 mph at the 91st percentile for shot speed.

50.3 per cent of the expected goals is the 55th percentile — 2nd among Ottawa forwards behind Mathieu Joseph — out of 64.4 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 19th-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

He and Alex DeBrincat had the two softest chairs on this roster and they are now on the same club.

His ice went 35-22 against an expectation of 30.27-29.93 — five goals of surplus going forward and eight fewer against than the model asked.

The Physical Game

6.13 hits per 60 is the 72nd percentile and 1.03 blocks the 18th at 6-3 and 209.

0.48 penalties drawn per 60 is the 18th percentile against 0.83 taken, and thirty-two penalty minutes came out of forty-six games.

The Intangibles

21.6 mph is the 36th-slowest top speed of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, at 4.2 bursts per 60 in the 38th percentile and 9.85 miles per 60 in the 67th.

A 78-point pace from one of the forty slowest forwards in the league is the finding, and the file offers no mechanism for it beyond the shot speed and the chair.

He is 24 with 97 points in 145 games and has never played sixty. Availability is the question the record cannot answer and the scoring rate is the one it can.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    64% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Twenty-seven assists against seventeen goals in forty-six games — he is a distributor first and the career ratio says the same, with fifty-seven assists to forty goals across 145 games.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 670 minutes

Expected goals
50.3%
58th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.1%
46th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 35 for, 22 against. Expected: 30.3 and 29.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
67th
Numbers
58th

The two rank him within 9 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 64 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 46 games

Top speed
21.6 mph
29th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.33 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.11 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.4 mph
94th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 670 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
OTT took 47.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.3% — 3.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 670 minutes at five-on-five — 29th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Josh Norris48.5%53.6%48.2%
Brady Tkachuk48.7%53.5%49.3%
Thomas Chabot54.1%46.9%47.1%

48.5% together, 53.6% for him apart and 48.2% for Norris apart. He was better away from Norris, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Norris.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

152 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 19% from beyond forty.