Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

5

Nick Holden

Ottawa Senators Defense

The 5th-most short-handed ice time of 202 defencemen and the 12th-slowest top speed of 192, at 35.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11CBJ50000000060.017:11
2012-13CBJ2000+1000020.08:35
2013-14COL54101525+12222026615.218:41
2014-15COL785914-1128202945.319:48
2015-16COL8261622-124000986.121:53
2016-17NYR80112334+13353028413.120:37
2017-18NYR/BOS7341317-514000805.019:00
2018-19VGK6131215+514000773.918:18
2019-20VGK616814-1131001015.918:51
2020-21VGK17022+32000230.015:51
2021-22OTT7651419012001756.719:51
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—58950112162+161648077067.119:35

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

76 games, 5 goals and 14 assists at 19:51 a night, even, twelve penalty minutes, 75 shots. Undrafted, and 589 NHL games with five clubs out of it. Eleven seasons, 162 points.

The Finesse Game

2.98 shots per 60 is the 9th percentile among defencemen — seventy-five shots in seventy-six games — from a 53-foot median in the 82nd percentile. A point shot and nothing else.

0.90 even-strength points per 60 is the 44th percentile and none of his points came on the power play: four seconds a night.

47.5 per cent of the expected goals and 47.4 per cent of the attempts, out of 35.6 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 50th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts. That is one of the fifty hardest chairs in the league, on the club with the 28th-ranked penalty kill.

His ice went 43-52 against an expectation of 48.09-53.15 — five goals short going forward.

The Physical Game

4.57 hits per 60 is the 56th percentile and 4.45 blocks the 60th at 6-4 and 210.

0.24 penalties taken per 60 is the 7th percentile and twelve penalty minutes came out of seventy-six games. 0.16 penalties drawn per 60 is the 9th percentile. He is in almost nothing in either direction, which at 35 in twenty minutes a night is the whole point.

The Intangibles

3:12 short-handed a night is the 5th-most of the 202 defencemen who played forty games, at 35 years old.

20.9 mph is the 12th-slowest top speed of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers, at 0.6 bursts per 60 in the 16th percentile and 8.01 miles per 60 in the 9th.

Three separate skating measurements in the bottom tenth of the position, on a man taking the fifth-heaviest penalty-killing load in hockey.

He is 35 and undrafted, with 589 NHL games. The kill, the discipline and the hard chair are the job; the skating says the job is close to over.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.16 penalty minutes a game over 76, 6th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    36% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 3rd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “3:12 short-handed a night is the 5th-most of the 202 defencemen who played forty games, at 35 years old.”

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted, and 589 NHL games with five clubs out of it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,238 minutes

Expected goals
47.5%
35th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.4%
33rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 43 for, 52 against. Expected: 48.1 and 53.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
17th
Numbers
35th

The two rank him within 18 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 53 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 76 games

Top speed
20.9 mph
25th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.18 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.65 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.8 mph
41st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1238 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
OTT took 47.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.5% — 0.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,238 minutes at five-on-five — 88th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nikita Zaitsev49.3%46.2%44.2%
Artem Zub45.6%48.6%47.8%
Connor Brown50.8%46.2%48.9%

49.3% together, 46.2% for him apart and 44.2% for Zaitsev apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

114 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 40 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 74% from beyond forty.