Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

24

Austin Watson

Ottawa Senators Left Wing

More blocks per 60 than any of the 393 qualified forwards, the 5th-most hits, and the 3rd-most buried chair of 652 skaters.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13NSH6101-20000425.012:42
2015-16NSH573710-432000555.510:00
2016-17NSH7751217+1499000905.612:26
2017-18NSH7614519+21230439614.612:20
2018-19NSH377916+11391016410.914:30
2019-20NSH536814-9650015012.011:37
2020-21OTT343710-740000417.312:00
2021-22OTT6710616-3910118811.411:59
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—4074954103+248915648810.012:03

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

67 games, 10 goals and 6 assists at 11:59 a night, minus-3, ninety-one penalty minutes, 88 shots. Eighteenth overall in 2010 by Nashville, eight seasons, 407 games, 103 points, 489 career penalty minutes.

The Finesse Game

23.3 per cent of his end-zone starts came in the attacking end — the 3rd-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts. Ninety attacking-end starts against 296 in his own.

Two men in the league were buried more deeply and one of them is his own team-mate.

1.28 even-strength points per 60 is the 21st percentile and none of his points came on the power play — three seconds a night.

6.57 shots per 60 is the 35th percentile at 11.4 per cent, from a 29-foot median with thirty-nine per cent from the slot — the 84th and 10th percentiles. He shoots from too far out.

43.7 per cent of the expected goals is the 11th percentile and 44.0 per cent of the attempts the 8th. Out of that chair the shares are close to what should be expected, and they are still among the forty worst in the league.

His ice went 18-26 against an expectation of 22.69-29.17.

The Physical Game

4.70 blocks per 60 is the most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, at twelve minutes a night.

15.91 hits per 60 is the 5th-most of the 393 forwards, at 6-4 and 203 pounds.

2.32 penalties taken per 60 is the 4th-most of the 393 forwards and ninety-one penalty minutes came out of sixty-seven games. Against 1.79 drawn — the 12th-most — he is in more infractions in both directions than almost any forward in hockey.

Four separate physical columns in the top five per cent of the league, in one file.

The Intangibles

21.5 mph is the 6th percentile, 3.5 bursts per 60 the 26th, 9.37 miles per 60 the 27th. Slow, rarely sprinting, covering little ground.

He is 30 with 407 games and 489 penalty minutes. The blocks, the hits, the penalties and the chair are the most extreme fourth-line file in this batch, and on the club with the 28th-ranked penalty kill the last of those four is a bill it cannot pay.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    33.3% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    23% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 1st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “4.70 blocks per 60 is the most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, at twelve minutes a night.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “15.91 hits per 60 is the 5th-most of the 393 forwards, at 6-4 and 203 pounds.”

  • takes-libertiesa strength· crosses the line and knows where it is

    “2.32 penalties taken per 60 is the 4th-most of the 393 forwards and ninety-one penalty minutes came out of sixty-seven games.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 701 minutes

Expected goals
43.7%
13th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44%
10th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 18 for, 26 against. Expected: 22.7 and 29.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
33rd
Numbers
13th

The report ranks him 20 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 57 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 67 games

Top speed
21.5 mph
24th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.70 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.87 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.9 mph
44th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 701 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
OTT took 47.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.7% — 3.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 701 minutes at five-on-five — 32nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Dylan Gambrell41.8%46.8%34.2%
Nick Holden41.4%45.2%49.0%
Artem Zub46.7%42.2%47.2%

41.8% together, 46.8% for him apart and 34.2% for Gambrell apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Gambrell behind.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

111 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 23 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 33% from beyond forty.