Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

82

Jordan Oesterle

Nashville Predators Defense

Even in plus-minus while his line came out 23-18 at five-on-five, and 4 penalty minutes in 37 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15EDM6011-4000070.014:42
2015-16EDM17055+10000240.021:41
2016-17EDM2000-1000020.017:17
2017-18CHI5551015-118100995.120:31
2018-19ARI7161420-312300777.818:54
2019-20ARI5831013-914000694.317:01
2020-21ARI4311011-1010100382.617:54
2021-22DET45268-74001633.218:17
2022-23DET522911-919000543.715:39
2023-24CGY22022-64000180.013:31
2024-25BOS/NSH374610040003810.517:09
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—408237396-59755014894.717:52

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

37 games, 4 goals and 6 assists for 10 points at 17:09 a night, on 38 shots at 10.53 per cent. 4 penalty minutes. Even in plus-minus.

That last figure is worth stopping on. At five-on-five his line was outscored 23-18 against an expected 19.82-20.63 — a ten-goal deficit across 528 minutes — and the season closed at zero. Empty nets, shorthanded goals and the arithmetic of who happened to be on the ice account for all of it, and none of it is a description of how he played.

The Finesse Game

A seventh defenceman’s offensive game, honestly held. 66 per cent of his shots came from beyond 40 feet and 3 per cent from inside 20 — the lowest interior rate on the roster — and 10.53 per cent on 38 attempts is a small sample doing flattering work.

He skates well enough to escape a forecheck and he moves the puck without hesitating, which is the reason he keeps being signed by somebody.

The Physical Game

181 pounds, and he does not defend by force under any circumstances. He boxes out with position and stick and loses the crease to anybody who genuinely wants it.

4 penalty minutes in 37 games is what a defenceman who is never reaching looks like, and it is the most admirable thing on this page.

The Intangibles

Undrafted out of Western Michigan, and now a decade in the league across five organisations, all of it as a sixth or seventh defenceman.

He plays when there are injuries, he does not complain about the weeks when there are none, and he is not a liability for fifteen minutes. That is a career, and a more useful one than most first-round picks assemble.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He skates well enough to escape a forecheck and he moves the puck without hesitating, which is the reason he keeps being signed by somebody.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “181 pounds, and he does not defend by force under any circumstances.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He boxes out with position and stick and loses the crease to anybody who genuinely wants it.”

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “4 penalty minutes in 37 games is what a defenceman who is never reaching looks like, and it is the most admirable thing on this page.”

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted out of Western Michigan, and now a decade in the league across five organisations, all of it as a sixth or seventh defenceman.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “he is not a liability for fifteen minutes”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 528 minutes

Expected goals
49%
45th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.2%
67th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 23 for, 18 against. Expected: 19.8 and 20.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
0th
Numbers
45th

The numbers rank him 45 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 53 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 37 games

Top speed
21.3 mph
34th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.62 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.50 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.3 mph
83rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 89.7

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 with BOS · 372 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
NSH took 49.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.0% — 0.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
528 minutes at five-on-five — 18th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brandon Carlo44.4%50.7%46.7%
Charlie McAvoy52.0%48.3%50.1%
Justin Brazeau40.3%51.7%50.5%

44.4% together, 50.7% for him apart and 46.7% for Carlo apart. He was better away from Carlo, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Carlo.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

64 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 42 feet. 3% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 66% from beyond forty.