Armchair Hockey Scout Beta
82

Jordan Oesterle

Nashville Predators Defense

Even in plus-minus while his line was outscored 17-29 at five-on-five, and 4 penalty minutes in 37 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15EDM6011-4000070.014:42
2015-16EDM17055+10000240.021:41
2016-17EDM2000-1000020.017:17
2017-18CHI5551015-118100995.120:31
2018-19ARI7161420-312300777.818:54
2019-20ARI5831013-914000694.317:01
2020-21ARI4311011-1010100382.617:54
2021-22DET45268-74001633.218:17
2022-23DET522911-919000543.715:39
2023-24CGY22022-64000180.013:31
2024-25BOS/NSH374610040003810.517:09
2025-26 so far
Career408237396-59755014894.717:52

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

37 games, 4 goals and 6 assists for 10 points at 17:09 a night, on 38 shots at 10.53 per cent. 4 penalty minutes. Even in plus-minus.

That last figure is worth stopping on. At five-on-five his line was outscored 17-29 against an expected 19.58-21.08 — a ten-goal deficit across 528 minutes — and the season closed at zero. Empty nets, shorthanded goals and the arithmetic of who happened to be on the ice account for all of it, and none of it is a description of how he played.

The Finesse Game

A seventh defenceman’s offensive game, honestly held. 66 per cent of his shots came from beyond 40 feet and 3 per cent from inside 20 — the lowest interior rate on the roster — and 10.53 per cent on 38 attempts is a small sample doing flattering work.

He skates well enough to escape a forecheck and he moves the puck without hesitating, which is the reason he keeps being signed by somebody.

The Physical Game

181 pounds, and he does not defend by force under any circumstances. He boxes out with position and stick and loses the crease to anybody who genuinely wants it.

4 penalty minutes in 37 games is what a defenceman who is never reaching looks like, and it is the most admirable thing on this page.

The Intangibles

Undrafted out of Western Michigan, and now a decade in the league across five organisations, all of it as a sixth or seventh defenceman.

He plays when there are injuries, he does not complain about the weeks when there are none, and he is not a liability for fifteen minutes. That is a career, and a more useful one than most first-round picks assemble.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 528 minutes

Expected goals
48.2%
34th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.4%
58th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 17 for, 29 against. Expected: 19.6 and 21.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
1st
Numbers
34th

The numbers rank him 33 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 53 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 with BOS · 372 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
NSH took 49.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.2% — 1.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
528 minutes at five-on-five — 18th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brandon Carlo44.3%49.6%47.1%
Charlie McAvoy49.6%47.8%50.6%
Justin Brazeau37.9%51.3%51.4%

44.3% together, 49.6% for him apart and 47.1% for Carlo apart. He was better away from Carlo, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Carlo.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

64 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 42 feet. 3% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 66% from beyond forty.