Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

9

Filip Forsberg

Nashville Predators Left Wing

31 goals on 281 shots, and a line outscored 49-54 while the chances said 46.5-51 — the widest gap between deserved and delivered in this edition.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13NSH5011-50000140.015:29
2013-14NSH13145-84100205.011:24
2014-15NSH82263763+152460623711.017:20
2015-16NSH82333164+14781324713.419:03
2016-17NSH82312758-43233923413.318:31
2017-18NSH67263864+2738130617914.517:28
2018-19NSH64282250+82672421712.918:37
2019-20NSH63212748-72970219810.617:21
2020-21NSH39122032-9163031299.318:17
2021-22NSH69424284+1222100822618.618:06
2022-23NSH50192342-42040215712.117:28
2023-24NSH82484694+16431301134713.818:54
2024-25NSH82314576-2744100328111.018:38
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—780318363681+1534585657248612.818:04

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

82 games, 31 goals and 45 assists for 76 points — the most on the club by twenty — on 281 shots, 41 more than any other Predator took. 11.03 per cent, 10 power-play goals, 44 penalty minutes. Minus-27.

The plus-minus is the least useful number on this page and the on-ice figures explain why. His line scored 26 goals at five-on-five against an expected 46.47, and conceded 54 against an expected 51.1. That is twenty goals which should have been scored and were not, on top of three that should not have gone in and did. A 48.7 per cent chance share is below average. Being outscored 49-54 is not what below average looks like.

The Finesse Game

The shot is the best on the club and among the better ones in the league — heavy, disguised, released off the pass without a windup, and available from anywhere. A median shot distance of 34 feet with 27 per cent of attempts from inside 20 describes a man who will shoot from the circle and will also go to the net, which is a rarer combination than it sounds.

He handles the puck at pace, beats a defenceman one-on-one going wide, and the hands work in tight. What he does not do is create for other people at the rate his skill suggests: 45 assists against 281 personal attempts is a shooter’s distribution, and it is the right one for him.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 205 and hard enough on a puck to hold the wall against most defencemen, though he will not go looking for the collision. 44 penalty minutes.

The durability is the change worth recording. After four seasons in which he missed 70 games in total, he has now played all 82 twice in three years.

The Intangibles

He has been the best player in this organisation for most of a decade, and he was the best player on it again in its worst season since the expansion years. 76 points on a club that scored 214 goals is 37 per cent of the offence.

The 49-54 is the fact to carry forward. Nothing in the process changed and the results were catastrophic, which is the textbook definition of a number that should come back. If it does not, it will be because he is 31 — not because last season was real.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    34.3% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    63% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 94th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “6-1 and 205 and hard enough on a puck to hold the wall against most defencemen, though he will not go looking for the collision.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “he will not go looking for the collision”

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “What he does not do is create for other people at the rate his skill suggests: 45 assists against 281 personal attempts is a shooter's distribution, and it is the right one for him.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “describes a man who will shoot from the circle and will also go to the net, which is a rarer combination than it sounds.”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He handles the puck at pace, beats a defenceman one-on-one going wide, and the hands work in tight.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,102 minutes

Expected goals
48.7%
41st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.8%
62nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 49 for, 54 against. Expected: 48.8 and 51.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
72nd
Numbers
41st

The report ranks him 31 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 76 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 82 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
42nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
0.71 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.96 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.3 mph
98th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1102 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
NSH took 49.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.7% — 0.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,102 minutes at five-on-five — 76th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Steven Stamkos48.6%48.8%45.9%
Ryan O'Reilly48.4%48.9%52.4%
Jonathan Marchessault48.3%48.9%47.1%

48.6% together, 48.8% for him apart and 45.9% for Stamkos apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

426 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 31 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 27% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 34% from beyond forty.