This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Alexandre Carrier

25 points, a 45.7 per cent chance share, and a right shot playing 20 minutes because there was nobody else.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2016-17	NSH	2	0	0	0	+1	0	0	0	0	1	0.0	10:24
2019-20	NSH	3	0	0	0	+2	2	0	0	0	4	0.0	10:47
2020-21	NSH	19	1	2	3	+3	8	0	0	0	31	3.2	20:03
2021-22	NSH	77	3	27	30	+26	50	1	0	0	95	3.2	20:59
2022-23	NSH	43	2	7	9	0	27	0	0	1	48	4.2	17:53
2023-24	NSH	73	4	16	20	+7	44	0	1	2	77	5.2	18:48
2024-25	NSH/MTL	79	3	22	25	-10	40	0	0	0	82	3.7	20:35
2025-26 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	296	13	74	87	+29	171	1	1	3	338	3.9	19:39

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 22 assists in 79 games for 25 points, minus-10, on 20:35 a night.

45.3 per cent at five-on-five, the 18th percentile — the second-worst share on the blue line — over 1,347 minutes. His on-ice goals were 52-64 against an expected 51.4-62.0.

The Finesse Game

Modest. 82 shots and 3 goals with 68 per cent from beyond 40 feet, and a first pass that is clean under moderate pressure.

22 assists at 20 minutes a night is a fair third-pair return and a poor second-pair one. He does not create anything and does not attempt to.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 174, and light. He does not clear a net front and loses board battles to bigger forwards, defending with stick and position instead.

40 penalty minutes over 79 games is a moderate rate and reflects being beaten physically often enough to reach.

The Intangibles

A fourth-round pick, two organisations, and a career of being a useful third-pair defenceman asked to do more.

At 29 the projection is unchanged. With Noah Dobson arriving, he moves down the depth chart to where he belongs, which will improve his numbers and the club’s.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

durable· was available
79 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net
“He does not clear a net front and loses board battles to bigger forwards, defending with stick and position instead.”
wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line
“He does not clear a net front and loses board battles to bigger forwards, defending with stick and position instead.”
defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens
“defending with stick and position instead”
fouls-when-beatena strength· the stick foul that follows losing a step
“40 penalty minutes over 79 games is a moderate rate and reflects being beaten physically often enough to reach.”
playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes
“He does not create anything and does not attempt to.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,347 minutes

Expected goals: 45.3%; 18th pct
Shot attempts: 46.5%; 21st pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 52 for, 64 against. Expected: 51.4 and 62.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

17th

Numbers

18th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 79 games

Top speed: 21.6 mph; 49th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 0.49 a game
Distance: 3.03 miles a game
Hardest shot: 86.3 mph; 23rd pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 876 minutes at five-on-five

Mike Matheson48%
Kaiden Guhle33%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club: MTL took 48.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.3% — 3.3 below the club he did it on.
The role: Third pair, 1,347 minutes at five-on-five — 93rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Mike Matheson	42.2%	46.8%	48.6%
Nick Suzuki	41.3%	46.5%	54.4%
Kaiden Guhle	52.5%	43.3%	47.2%

42.2% together, 46.8% for him apart and 48.6% for Matheson apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

121 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 59 feet. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 68% from beyond forty.