Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

45

Alexandre Carrier

Montreal Canadiens Defense

25 points, a 45.7 per cent chance share, and a right shot playing 20 minutes because there was nobody else.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17NSH2000+1000010.010:24
2019-20NSH3000+2200040.010:47
2020-21NSH19123+38000313.220:03
2021-22NSH7732730+2650100953.220:59
2022-23NSH43279027001484.217:53
2023-24NSH7341620+744012775.218:48
2024-25NSH/MTL7932225-1040000823.720:35
2025-26 so far
Career296137487+291711133383.919:39

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 22 assists in 79 games for 25 points, minus-10, on 20:35 a night.

45.7 per cent at five-on-five, the 17th percentile — the second-worst share on the blue line — over 1,347 minutes. His on-ice goals were 53-60 against an expected 51.4-61.2.

The Finesse Game

Modest. 82 shots and 3 goals with 68 per cent from beyond 40 feet, and a first pass that is clean under moderate pressure.

22 assists at 20 minutes a night is a fair third-pair return and a poor second-pair one. He does not create anything and does not attempt to.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 174, and light. He does not clear a net front and loses board battles to bigger forwards, defending with stick and position instead.

40 penalty minutes over 79 games is a moderate rate and reflects being beaten physically often enough to reach.

The Intangibles

A fourth-round pick, two organisations, and a career of being a useful third-pair defenceman asked to do more.

At 29 the projection is unchanged. With Noah Dobson arriving, he moves down the depth chart to where he belongs, which will improve his numbers and the club’s.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,347 minutes

Expected goals
45.7%
17th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.5%
20th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 53 for, 60 against. Expected: 51.4 and 61.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
18th
Numbers
17th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 876 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
MTL took 48.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.7% — 2.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 1,347 minutes at five-on-five — 93rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mike Matheson41.0%47.8%49.7%
Nick Suzuki38.0%47.8%52.3%
Kaiden Guhle52.9%43.4%46.6%

41.0% together, 47.8% for him apart and 49.7% for Matheson apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

121 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 59 feet. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 68% from beyond forty.