Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

90

Ryan O'Reilly

Nashville Predators Center

57 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet at 34, 24 penalty minutes in 79 games, and the hardest defensive assignment on a club whose penalty kill finished 8th in the league.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2009-10COL8181826+4180221355.916:46
2010-11COL74131326-71621011910.916:03
2011-12COL81183755-1124031899.519:32
2012-13COL2961420-34300669.118:30
2013-14COL80283664-1290620113.919:49
2014-15COL82173855-5122111719.919:43
2015-16BUF71213960-16881215713.421:44
2016-17BUF72203555-11081318910.621:28
2017-18BUF81243761-232150323010.420:49
2018-19STL82284977+221261523412.020:46
2019-20STL71124961+111021311810.220:34
2020-21STL56243054+261842412918.620:45
2021-22STL78213758+111290016812.519:05
2022-23STL/TOR53161430-211611410215.717:57
2023-24NSH82264369+618140118014.419:46
2024-25NSH79213253-232490315113.918:59
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—1152303521824-21194961140253911.919:33

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

79 games, 21 goals and 32 assists for 53 points at 18:59 a night, on 151 shots at 13.91 per cent. 24 penalty minutes, the lowest rate among the club’s top-six forwards. Minus-23.

A 50.2 per cent chance share is the best among the club’s veteran forwards, and the on-ice goals were 38-52 against an expected 43.53-43.18 — thirteen goals unscored and nine extra conceded. He was the most defensively responsible forward on the roster and he was on the ice for 53 five-on-five goals against, which is the whole season in one line.

The Finesse Game

57 per cent of his shots came from inside 20 feet at a median of 17 — by a distance the most interior profile on the club, and at 34 that is a decision rather than an accident. He does not have a shot that beats a goaltender from the circle any more and he has rebuilt the game accordingly: below the goal line, off the wall, into the paint.

The faceoff work is elite and always has been. The passing is patient and a half-step slower than it was. He reads a breakout before it develops, which is the reputation and is why the important draw is his. The zone is not: 57.4 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 79th percentile.

The Physical Game

207 pounds and strong on a puck below the goal line in a way that never depended on speed. He absorbs cross-checks in the crease and does not answer them.

24 penalty minutes in 79 games, at nineteen minutes a night, doing that job is remarkable discipline — and it is not an accident of one season, it is how he has always played.

The Intangibles

A Conn Smythe winner and a Selke winner, and the professional standard on a club that badly needed one.

He is 34, the skating is going, and every part of his game that was never about speed is entirely intact. Those parts happen to be the ones that matter most in April.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    71.7% of his attempts in the slot, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He was the most defensively responsible forward on the roster and he was on the ice for 53 five-on-five goals against, which is the whole season in one line.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “57 per cent of his shots came from inside 20 feet at a median of 17 — by a distance the most interior profile on the club, and at 34 that is a decision rather than an accident.”

  • faceoffsa strength· takes the draw that starts it

    “The faceoff work is elite and always has been.”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “207 pounds and strong on a puck below the goal line in a way that never depended on speed.”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “He absorbs cross-checks in the crease and does not answer them.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “A Conn Smythe winner and a Selke winner, and the professional standard on a club that badly needed one.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,053 minutes

Expected goals
50.2%
55th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.5%
86th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 38 for, 52 against. Expected: 43.5 and 43.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
60th
Numbers
55th

The two rank him within 5 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 79 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
61st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
0.77 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.03 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.5 mph
48th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1053 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
NSH took 49.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.2% — 1.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,053 minutes at five-on-five — 68th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Filip Forsberg48.4%52.4%48.9%
Gustav Nyquist53.1%47.9%47.9%
Brady Skjei48.8%51.3%46.1%

48.4% together, 52.4% for him apart and 48.9% for Forsberg apart. He was better away from Forsberg, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Forsberg.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

226 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 22 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 57% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.