This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Tommy Novak
Pittsburgh Penguins Center
Acquired from Nashville in March for Michael Bunting, with the best chance share of any forward on the club.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | NSH | 27 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 4.0 | 11:48 |
| 2022-23 | NSH | 51 | 17 | 26 | 43 | +5 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 93 | 18.3 | 14:39 |
| 2023-24 | NSH | 71 | 18 | 27 | 45 | -3 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 113 | 15.9 | 14:12 |
| 2024-25 | NSH/PIT | 54 | 13 | 9 | 22 | -7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 92 | 14.1 | 13:14 |
| 2025-26 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 203 | 49 | 68 | 117 | -9 | 22 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 323 | 15.2 | 13:44 |
This Season So Far
The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
13 goals and 9 assists in 54 games across Nashville and Pittsburgh — 22 points at 13:14 a night, on 4 penalty minutes.
54.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 88th percentile — the best mark of any forward on this roster. His ice went 24-25 against an expectation of 27.47-23.09, which is a third line that was winning the play and losing the goals.
The Finesse Game
92 attempts at a median of 26 feet with 37 per cent from inside 20 and only 11 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 14.1 per cent. He shoots from the house.
The hands in a small space are the skill and 9 assists in 54 games understates it. He is a genuine offensive centre who has never been given a line that could keep up with him, and 45 points in 2022-23 is what the ceiling looks like.
The Physical Game
6-1 and 190 and light. He does not forecheck with force, he does not win a wall battle, and he is not used against a first line.
4 penalty minutes in 54 games is close to the lowest rate in this edition. He is out of the physical half of the game entirely.
The Intangibles
A third-round pick in 2015 who spent four full seasons in the American League and did not become an NHL regular until he was 25.
203 games and 117 points. He came to Pittsburgh in March with Luke Schenn in exchange for Michael Bunting. He is 28 and this is his last realistic chance at a top-six job.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 638 minutes
- Expected goals
- 54.3%
- 88th pct
- Shot attempts
- 55.1%
- 92nd pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 24 for, 25 against. Expected: 27.5 and 23.1.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 58 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2024-25 with NSH · 613 minutes at five-on-five
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2024-25
- The club
- PIT took 49.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.3% — 5.3 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- 638 minutes at five-on-five — 24th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Evangelista | 54.4% | 54.3% | 50.8% |
| Luke Schenn | 54.4% | 54.3% | 48.7% |
| Brady Skjei | 51.4% | 55.8% | 46.0% |
54.4% together, 54.3% for him apart and 50.8% for Evangelista apart. Evangelista was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Evangelista than for him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
124 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.