Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2023-24 report →

12

Ryan Johansen

Nashville Predators Center

The 5th-highest shooting percentage of 393 forwards, the 12th-worst penalty differential, and the worst chance share of any Predator regular.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12CBJ6791221-224303999.112:44
2012-13CBJ405712-712002845.916:05
2013-14CBJ82333063+34370523713.917:39
2014-15CBJ82264571-64072020212.919:30
2015-16CBJ/NSH80144660+6614021857.617:34
2016-17NSH82144761+1604131549.118:50
2017-18NSH79153954+137810312911.618:33
2018-19NSH80145064+74201613610.319:33
2019-20NSH68142236-54531210113.917:03
2020-21NSH48715220223006710.416:57
2021-22NSH79263763-253110611822.016:34
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—787177350527+848043532151211.717:32

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

79 games, 26 goals and 37 assists for 63 points at 16:34 a night, minus-2, fifty-three penalty minutes, 118 shots. Fourth overall in 2010 by Columbus, eleven seasons, 787 games, 527 points.

Sixty-three points is his best since 2018-19 and eight short of his career high.

The Finesse Game

22.0 per cent shooting is the 5th-highest of the 393 forwards who played forty games. Twenty-six goals came off 118 shots. His career rate across 1,512 shots is 11.7 per cent, and he had never before scored more than fifteen in a season after 2014-15.

5.41 shots per 60 is the 65th-lowest of the 393. A man shooting that rarely and converting at that rate is describing a season, not a skill.

2.22 even-strength points per 60 is the 73rd percentile and thirty-eight per cent of his points came on the power play at the 95th, from 3:02 a night.

46.8 per cent of the expected goals is the 23rd percentile — the worst share of any Predator who played a regular shift. His ice went 49-43 against an expectation of 34.84-39.65: fourteen goals of finishing surplus going forward, on ice that was being outchanced.

The with-and-without file is unkind. Roman Josi took 45.8 per cent of the chances with him and 53.2 without; Filip Forsberg 51.0 with and 54.5 without. Two of the three best players on this club were worse when he was on the ice with them.

The Physical Game

3.30 hits per 60 is the 41st percentile and 1.60 blocks the 45th at 6-3 and 218.

1.15 penalties taken per 60 against 0.41 drawn is the 12th-worst net of 393 forwards, and fifty-three penalty minutes came out of it. On the club that took more short-handed minutes than any other in the league, that is not a small line.

The Intangibles

21.7 mph is the 14th percentile, 2.5 bursts per 60 the 51st-fewest of 365 forwards, 9.51 miles per 60 the 134th-fewest. Slow, and rarely at speed.

He is 30, and this was a sixty-three-point season assembled almost entirely from a shooting percentage twice his career rate and a power play he takes three minutes of. The chance share, the penalty differential and the pair splits all say the same thing, and the point total says the opposite.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “1.15 penalties taken per 60 against 0.41 drawn is the 12th-worst net of 393 forwards, and fifty-three penalty minutes came out of it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 970 minutes

Expected goals
46.8%
29th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48%
37th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 49 for, 43 against. Expected: 34.8 and 39.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
26th
Numbers
29th

The two rank him within 3 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 55 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 79 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
32nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.70 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.63 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.2 mph
62nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 970 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NSH took 49.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.8% — 2.8 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 970 minutes at five-on-five — 58th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Roman Josi45.8%47.5%53.2%
Luke Kunin45.3%48.1%43.4%
Mattias Ekholm50.0%44.9%47.0%

45.8% together, 47.5% for him apart and 53.2% for Josi apart. Josi was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

148 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 26 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 46% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.