Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

64

Mikael Granlund

Nashville Predators Center

The 16th-most ice time of 393 forwards and the least ground covered of all 365 the tracking measures.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13MIN27268-46000365.613:11
2013-14MIN6383341-3222021047.717:19
2014-15MIN6883139+1720002998.117:54
2015-16MIN82133144-12202131608.118:07
2016-17MIN81264369+231273417714.718:49
2017-18MIN77214667+131871219310.918:47
2018-19MIN/NSH79163854-8242251898.518:21
2019-20NSH63171330-42841413013.117:48
2020-21NSH51131427-1145017417.619:28
2021-22NSH80115364-9333031179.420:25
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—671135308443+1219732826127910.618:21

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

80 games, 11 goals and 53 assists for 64 points at 20:25 a night, minus-9, thirty-three penalty minutes, 117 shots. Ninth overall in 2010 by Minnesota, ten seasons, 671 games, 443 points.

Fifty-three assists is a career high, beating the 46 of 2017-18. Sixty-four points is one short of it.

The Finesse Game

Fifty-three assists against eleven goals, on 4.30 shots per 60 — the 13th-lowest of 393 forwards. He is a distributor by volume and by choice, and the ratio is not close.

Forty-four per cent of his points came on the power play, the 97th percentile, from 3:08 a night at the 89th. 1.75 even-strength points per 60 is the 47th percentile — exactly ordinary once the power play is taken out.

2.09 takeaways per 60 is the 80th percentile against 1.87 giveaways. Fifty-four per cent of his shots came from the slot at a 23-foot median, which is where a man taking that few of them should take them.

49.5 per cent of the expected goals and 48.4 per cent of the attempts on 57.4 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 111th-highest of 652 skaters. His ice went 52-50 against an expectation of 44.99-45.83.

The Physical Game

3.38 hits per 60 is the 42nd percentile and 1.65 blocks the 47th at 5-10 and 193.

0.96 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.55 taken is the 81st percentile net. Thirty-three penalty minutes across eighty games.

The Intangibles

20:25 a night is the 16th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games. 8.37 miles per 60 is the least of the 365 the tracking covers. Nobody in the league played that much and moved that little.

1.1 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 13th-fewest of the 365, at a 22.1 mph top speed in the 31st percentile.

The chips cannot say why a coach gives twenty minutes to the least mobile forward in the league, and neither can this report. What they can say is that he took better than three minutes of power-play time a night on a club with the 19th-ranked power play, produced 44 per cent of his points there, and rated exactly average at even strength. He is 30, and the assist total is the real thing in the file.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Fifty-three assists against eleven goals, on 4.30 shots per 60 — the 13th-lowest of 393 forwards.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,142 minutes

Expected goals
49.5%
53rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.4%
39th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 52 for, 50 against. Expected: 45.0 and 45.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
38th
Numbers
53rd

The two rank him within 15 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 58 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 80 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
49th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.38 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.85 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.1 mph
93rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1142 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NSH took 49.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.5% — 0.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,142 minutes at five-on-five — 81st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Matt Duchene52.3%41.8%52.8%
Filip Forsberg54.5%44.4%51.8%
Roman Josi49.7%49.4%52.1%

52.3% together, 41.8% for him apart and 52.8% for Duchene apart. He was worse away from Duchene, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Duchene did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

167 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 14 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.