Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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5

Jeremy Lauzon

Nashville Predators Defense

The 6th-most hits of 202 defencemen and the 6th-lowest even-strength point rate, on a third pair that got outchanced.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19BOS16101-12001119.115:32
2019-20BOS19112+529000205.015:25
2020-21BOS41178+840000482.118:43
2021-22SEA/NSH66257-681000752.717:41
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—14251318+61520011543.317:26

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

66 games between Seattle and Nashville, 2 goals and 5 assists at 17:41 a night, minus-6, eighty-one penalty minutes. Fifty-second overall in 2015 by Boston, four seasons, 142 games, 18 points.

The Finesse Game

0.40 even-strength points per 60 is the 6th-lowest of the 202 defencemen who played forty games, and none of his points came on the power play — he takes two seconds of it a night.

3.86 shots per 60 is the 77th of 202, from a 54-foot median that is the 93rd percentile with six per cent from the slot. He shoots from the blue line and 2.7 per cent of them went in.

0.51 takeaways per 60 is the 11th percentile. Nothing in the file credits him with winning a puck.

46.3 per cent of the expected goals is the 21st percentile and 47.3 per cent of the attempts the 26th — the worst pair of shares of any Predator defenceman. They came from 44.3 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 159th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts, which is a hard chair but not the hardest on the club.

His ice went 32-47 against an expectation of 34.28-39.78 — two goals short going forward and seven long against.

The Physical Game

11.52 hits per 60 is the 6th-most of the 202 defencemen who played forty games, at 6-3 and 225 pounds.

1.34 penalties taken per 60 is the 12th-most of the 202 and eighty-one penalty minutes came out of sixty-six games. Against 0.82 drawn at the 94th percentile, he is in a great deal of traffic and loses the exchange.

3.24 blocks per 60 is the 19th percentile, which is low for a defenceman with this profile and is the one place the contact does not translate.

The Intangibles

21.7 mph is the 76th of 192 defencemen from the bottom, 1.8 bursts per 60 the 59th percentile, 8.04 miles per 60 the 11th percentile. Slow, and covering less ice than almost any defenceman in the league.

He is 25 with 142 NHL games and 152 career penalty minutes. The hits are genuine and near the top of the league; everything the puck touches is at or near the bottom of it. On a club that already carries Mark Borowiecki, a second defenceman built this way is a choice rather than an accident.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “11.52 hits per 60 is the 6th-most of the 202 defencemen who played forty games, at 6-3 and 225 pounds.”

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “1.34 penalties taken per 60 is the 12th-most of the 202 and eighty-one penalty minutes came out of sixty-six games.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,029 minutes

Expected goals
46.3%
25th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.3%
32nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 32 for, 47 against. Expected: 34.3 and 39.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
17th
Numbers
25th

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 53 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 66 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
58th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.53 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.37 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.6 mph
53rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with SEA · 832 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NSH took 49.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.3% — 3.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
1,029 minutes at five-on-five — 65th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Vince Dunn43.6%47.4%49.6%
Adam Larsson42.1%47.6%46.9%
Yanni Gourde44.0%46.9%51.1%

43.6% together, 47.4% for him apart and 49.6% for Dunn apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

99 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 54 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 76% from beyond forty.