Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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9

Filip Forsberg

Nashville Predators Left Wing

Forty-two goals in sixty-nine games — the 5th-best goals-per-game rate of the 611 skaters who played forty.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13NSH5011-50000140.015:29
2013-14NSH13145-84100205.011:24
2014-15NSH82263763+152460623711.017:20
2015-16NSH82333164+14781324713.419:03
2016-17NSH82312758-43233923413.318:31
2017-18NSH67263864+2738130617914.517:28
2018-19NSH64282250+82672421712.918:37
2019-20NSH63212748-72970219810.617:21
2020-21NSH39122032-9163031299.318:17
2021-22NSH69424284+1222100822618.618:06
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—566220249469+3023858641170112.917:55

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

69 games, 42 goals and 42 assists for 84 points at 18:06 a night, plus-12, twenty-two penalty minutes, 226 shots. Eleventh overall in 2012 by Washington, ten seasons in Nashville, 566 games, 469 points.

0.609 goals per game is the 5th-best of the 611 skaters who played forty — behind Auston Matthews, Leon Draisaitl, Alex Ovechkin and Chris Kreider, and ahead of Kyle Connor and Kirill Kaprizov. Forty-two beats his old high of 33.

The Finesse Game

3.32 even-strength points per 60 is the 97th percentile and 10.86 shots per 60 the 25th-most of 393 forwards. This is a high-volume shooter who also produced at even strength, which the two forty-goal men on this club do not have in common.

18.6 per cent shooting is the 22nd-highest of the 393, against a career rate of 12.9 per cent across 1,701 shots. The volume is his and some of the conversion is not.

Thirty-nine per cent of his shots came from the slot at a 30-foot median — the 11th and 89th percentiles. He shoots from further out than almost any forward scoring at this rate, on a 96.3 mph shot at the 90th percentile.

2.55 takeaways per 60 is the 94th percentile and 2.69 giveaways the 94th. He is on the puck constantly at both ends of that ledger.

53.4 per cent of the expected goals on 59.8 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 55th-highest of 652. His ice went 57-42 against an expectation of 40.29-35.12.

The Physical Game

5.38 hits per 60 is the 65th percentile and 2.31 blocks the 78th at 6-1 and 205.

1.15 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.53 taken is the 29th-best net of 393 forwards, on twenty-two penalty minutes. He is in enough traffic to be fouled and disciplined enough not to answer it.

The Intangibles

22.2 mph is the 37th percentile, 2.6 bursts per 60 the 58th-fewest of 365 forwards, 9.05 miles per 60 the 38th-fewest. Slow by the chips, rarely sprinting, covering less ground than nine-tenths of the league.

He is 28 with 220 career goals and has never played eighty games. Sixty-nine appearances is his fifth season under seventy in ten, and it is the single largest thing standing between this rate and a hundred-point year. The finishing will come down; the shot volume, the takeaway rate and the even-strength rate are the parts that have been there for a decade.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-shot· beats a goaltender from range

    7 of 81 attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 8.6%, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.21) · 16% keep it

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “1.15 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.53 taken is the 29th-best net of 393 forwards, on twenty-two penalty minutes.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 957 minutes

Expected goals
53.4%
79th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.9%
77th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 57 for, 42 against. Expected: 40.3 and 35.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
90th
Numbers
79th

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 69 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
54th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.80 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.73 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.3 mph
94th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 957 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NSH took 49.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.4% — 3.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 957 minutes at five-on-five — 57th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Matt Duchene54.3%48.7%48.7%
Mikael Granlund54.5%51.8%44.4%
Roman Josi54.5%52.4%50.1%

54.3% together, 48.7% for him apart and 48.7% for Duchene apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

338 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 43 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 28% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.