Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

59

Roman Josi

Nashville Predators Defense

The most points, the most assists and the most shots of any defenceman in the league, and the highest even-strength point rate of the 202 who qualify.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12NSH5251116+114100647.818:23
2012-13NSH4851318-78101965.223:32
2013-14NSH72132740-2183021687.726:25
2014-15NSH81154055+15263042017.526:28
2015-16NSH81144761-3436131987.125:29
2016-17NSH72123749+7187012175.525:04
2017-18NSH75143953+24247032535.524:28
2018-19NSH82154156+9422042745.525:10
2019-20NSH69164965+22414012606.225:47
2020-21NSH4882533-11201031415.724:21
2021-22NSH80237396+134611022818.225:33
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—760140402542+683004612421536.524:51

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

80 games, 23 goals and 73 assists for 96 points at 25:33 a night, plus-13, forty-six penalty minutes, 281 shots. Thirty-eighth overall in 2008, eleven seasons, 760 games, 542 points.

Ninety-six points is the most by any defenceman in the league and 11th among all skaters. His previous career high was the 65 of 2019-20.

The Finesse Game

Seventy-three assists is the most by any defenceman in the league and the 5th-most by any skater in it, against twenty-three goals.

2.06 even-strength points per 60 is the highest of the 202 defencemen who played forty games — not the highest percentile, the highest figure. Cale Makar is second at 1.99.

281 shots is the most by any defenceman in the league, forty-one clear of Makar, and 8.25 per 60 is the 2nd-most of the 202, behind Dougie Hamilton. Thirty-nine per cent of his points came on the power play, where he took 3:23 a night.

Twelve per cent of his shots came from the slot at a 49-foot median — this is a point shot, taken at enormous volume, converting at 8.2 per cent.

1.41 takeaways per 60 is the 85th percentile and 2.08 giveaways the 72nd. He handles it constantly and the ledger comes out slightly ahead.

51.3 per cent of the expected goals and 51.6 per cent of the attempts are ordinary shares, and they came from a soft chair: 60.2 per cent of his end-zone starts were in the attacking end, the 50th-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

His ice went 84-64 against an expectation of 67.88-64.41. Sixteen goals of finishing surplus going forward, and a goals-against that matched the model exactly.

The Physical Game

1.94 hits per 60 is the 15th percentile among defencemen and 3.90 blocks the 44th at 6-1 and 201 pounds. Forty-six penalty minutes across eighty games.

0.53 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.68 taken. He is not in the contact in either direction, and at twenty-five and a half minutes a night that is a choice the club has made about how it wants him used.

The Intangibles

21.9 mph is the 87th of 192 defencemen from the bottom, 0.9 bursts per 60 the 60th-fewest of 557 skaters, 8.46 miles per 60 the 101st-fewest. The chips say he is not fast and does not cover much ground; his 97.9 mph shot is the 80th percentile, which is the one place they agree with the point totals.

He is 32, in his eleventh season, and has just produced the best year any defenceman in the league produced. Nothing in the tracking explains how, and the report should say so rather than invent a mechanism: what is measurable is the volume, the assists, the ice time and the shelter, and those four together are the whole visible case.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    20:13 a game at five-on-five, 98th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    60% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 96th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Seventy-three assists is the most by any defenceman in the league and the 5th-most by any skater in it, against twenty-three goals.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,617 minutes

Expected goals
51.3%
65th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.6%
70th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 84 for, 64 against. Expected: 67.9 and 64.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
90th
Numbers
65th

The report ranks him 25 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 80 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
63rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.39 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.60 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
97.9 mph
86th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1617 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NSH took 49.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.3% — 1.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,617 minutes at five-on-five — 100th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Dante Fabbro52.2%50.2%49.5%
Matt Duchene53.8%50.0%51.2%
Mikael Granlund49.7%52.1%49.4%

52.2% together, 50.2% for him apart and 49.5% for Fabbro apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

375 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 24 of them goals. His median goal came from 38 feet. 10% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 68% from beyond forty.