Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

15

Dante Fabbro

Nashville Predators Defense

The slowest recorded top speed of all 557 skaters the tracking covers, and the 3rd-fewest sprints.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19NSH4101-10000520.012:44
2019-20NSH645611-738100925.419:02
2020-21NSH4021012-123101593.419:19
2021-22NSH6632124+1324000883.419:03
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—174113748+4852012444.518:58

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

66 games, 3 goals and 21 assists at 19:03 a night, plus-13, twenty-four penalty minutes. Seventeenth overall in 2016, four seasons, 174 games, 48 points.

The Finesse Game

1.22 even-strength points per 60 is the 79th percentile among defencemen — a genuinely good rate — and none of his points came on the power play at all. He takes nine seconds of it a night.

4.20 shots per 60 is the 93rd of 202, from a 52-foot median with four per cent from the slot and eighty-three per cent from beyond forty feet. This is a point shot and nothing else, at 92.8 mph in the 34th percentile.

51.7 per cent of the expected goals is the 63rd percentile and 51.6 per cent of the attempts the 67th — the best pair of shares on the Nashville blue line. They came from the softest chair on it: 59.8 per cent of his end-zone starts were in the attacking end, the 56th-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

His ice went 56-46 against an expectation of 47.01-43.92.

He was Roman Josi’s partner across 1,787 attempts and the pair took 52.2 per cent of them. Josi apart was 50.2, Fabbro apart 49.5. The pair is better than either man alone, which is the least common of the four possible shapes.

The Physical Game

3.29 hits per 60 is the 40th percentile and 5.01 blocks the 74th at 6-0 and 200.

0.57 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.57 taken — dead level, twenty-four penalty minutes in sixty-six games.

The Intangibles

20.3 mph is the slowest recorded top speed of all 557 skaters the tracking covers, and the slowest of the 192 defencemen. 0.19 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 3rd-fewest of the 557. He covered 8.13 miles per 60, the 31st-fewest.

No skater in the league was measured slower. That is the fact, and what the report cannot do is turn it into a verdict: he played nineteen minutes a night beside the best defenceman in hockey and took the best shares on the club while doing it.

He is 24, a first-round pick, and the file contains the most extreme skating measurement in the book alongside a set of results that do not reflect it. Either the top speed does not matter at his position, or it will start to.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    82.6% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 90th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    60% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 95th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,160 minutes

Expected goals
51.7%
67th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.6%
70th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 56 for, 46 against. Expected: 47.0 and 43.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
13th
Numbers
67th

The numbers rank him 54 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 52 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 66 games

Top speed
20.3 mph
12th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.06 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.58 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.8 mph
54th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1160 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NSH took 49.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.7% — 2.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,160 minutes at five-on-five — 82nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Roman Josi52.2%49.5%50.2%
Mikael Granlund49.5%52.9%49.6%
Matt Duchene51.8%51.7%52.8%

52.2% together, 49.5% for him apart and 50.2% for Josi apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

121 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 38 feet. 4% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 83% from beyond forty.