Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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84

Tanner Jeannot

Nashville Predators Left Wing

Twenty-four goals from an undrafted second-year winger, on the 14th-highest shooting percentage of 393 forwards and 130 penalty minutes.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21NSH15527+620102321.712:08
2021-22NSH81241741+213021512419.415:59
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—96291948+813222514719.715:23

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

81 games, 24 goals and 17 assists for 41 points at 15:59 a night, plus-2, 130 penalty minutes, 124 shots. Undrafted, ninety-six NHL games, and twenty-four goals in the first full season of his career.

One hundred and thirty penalty minutes is 3rd in the league, behind Mark Borowiecki and Patrick Maroon.

The Finesse Game

19.4 per cent shooting is the 14th-highest of the 393 forwards who played forty games, on 5.75 shots per 60 at the 88th of 393 from the bottom — a low-volume shooter converting at an extreme rate, which is the least durable combination in the book.

Sixty-one per cent of his shots came from the slot at an 18-foot median — the 84th and 7th percentiles. He scores from inside, which is the only way a rate like that survives at all.

2.12 even-strength points per 60 is the 69th percentile and only seven per cent of his points came on the power play.

49.2 per cent of the expected goals is the 46th percentile and 47.9 per cent of the attempts the 31st, from 38.5 per cent offensive-zone starts — the 67th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts. That is a genuinely buried assignment and the shares are better than it.

His ice went 40-35 against an expectation of 36.57-37.81.

The Physical Game

14.73 hits per 60 is the 10th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, at 6-2 and 221 pounds. 2.97 blocks per 60 is the 92nd percentile.

1.85 penalties taken per 60 is the 96th percentile against 1.30 drawn at the 88th. The net is the 22nd-worst of 393. He is in everything and pays for most of it.

The Intangibles

2:33 short-handed a night is the 4th-most of the 393 forwards, behind his own line-mate Colton Sissons, who led them all.

22.5 mph is the 54th percentile, 8.1 bursts per 60 the 282nd of 365 forwards, 9.04 miles per 60 the 35th-fewest. He sprints often and covers very little ground, which is what a heavy forechecker on a buried line looks like.

He is 25, undrafted, and has ninety-six NHL games. The hits, the slot share and the kill are the man; the twenty-four goals are the season. Nineteen per cent shooting on 124 shots is not a skill anybody has yet shown they keep.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted, ninety-six NHL games, and twenty-four goals in the first full season of his career.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Sixty-one per cent of his shots came from the slot at an 18-foot median — the 84th and 7th percentiles.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “14.73 hits per 60 is the 10th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, at 6-2 and 221 pounds.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “2:33 short-handed a night is the 4th-most of the 393 forwards, behind his own line-mate Colton Sissons, who led them all.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,036 minutes

Expected goals
49.2%
50th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.9%
36th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 40 for, 35 against. Expected: 36.6 and 37.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
63rd
Numbers
50th

The two rank him within 13 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 81 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
68th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.15 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.41 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.6 mph
70th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1036 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NSH took 49.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.2% — 0.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,036 minutes at five-on-five — 66th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Colton Sissons49.8%47.2%46.6%
Yakov Trenin51.6%42.3%44.1%
Roman Josi53.0%46.5%50.8%

49.8% together, 47.2% for him apart and 46.6% for Sissons apart. Sissons was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Sissons than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

179 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 23 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 54% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 12% from beyond forty.